Urgent Price Cuts Over 75% For Commercial Building
Ken McElroy ShowMarch 26, 202400:34:0346.74 MB

Urgent Price Cuts Over 75% For Commercial Building

Sign up for Danille's Webinar on Whether you Should Buy, Hold, or Sell Your Property: https://kenmcelroy.com/webinars/

Ken McElroy and Danille McElroy discuss the challenges and economic realities behind converting vacant office buildings into residential apartments. As the pandemic shifts working habits, many office spaces find themselves vacant, leading to financial distress and even bankruptcy. They delve into an actual deal Ken has reviewed, which helps identify and explore market trends.

• • • 

Visit Ken's Bookstore: https://kenmcelroy.com/books
 
• • •
 
ABOUT KEN: Ken is the author of the bestselling books The ABC’s of Real Estate Investing, The Advanced Guide to Real Estate Investing, and The ABC’s of Property Management. With over two decades of experience in real estate investing, Ken McElroy is passionate about sharing the good life by helping real estate investors grow and prosper. This podcast is a place for Ken to discuss numerous topics connected to real estate investing, including finance, budgeting, the entrepreneur mindset, and creating passive income. Ken offers a wealth of personal experiences, practical advice, success stories, and even some informative setbacks, all presented here to educate and inspire. Whether you’re a new or seasoned investor, the information and resources on this channel will set you on a path where you and your investments can thrive.
 
Ken's company: https://mccompanies.com
 
• • •
 
DISCLAIMERS: Any information or advice available on this podcast is intended for educational and general guidance only. Ken McElroy and KenMcElroy.com, LLC shall not be liable for any direct, incidental, consequential, indirect, or punitive damages arising out of access to or use of any of the content available on this podcast. Consult a financial advisor or other wealth management professional before you make investments of any kind.
 
Although Ken McElroy and his affiliates take all reasonable care to ensure that the contents of this podcast are accurate and up-to-date, all information contained on it is provided ‘as is.’ Ken McElroy makes no warranties or representations of any kind concerning the accuracy or suitability of the information contained on this podcast. Any links to other websites are provided only as a convenience and KenMcElroy.com, LLC encourages you to read the privacy statements of any third-party websites. All comments will be reviewed by the KenMcElroy.com staff and may be deleted if deemed inappropriate.
 
Comments that are off-topic, offensive, or promotional will not be posted. The comments/posts are from members of the public and do not necessarily reflect the views of Ken McElroy and his affiliates.
 
© 2024 KenMcElroy.com, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

[00:00:00] Welcome to the Real Estate Strategies Podcast. Let's get right into this episode. So we just got an exclusive deal across my desk of a 100% vacant office building that was probably worth somewhere between 30 and 40 million dollars for 7 million. Wow, it's a 100% vacant. And it's not something I want to buy. So that's the interesting thing. So we're just now seeing the very, very beginning of obviously you know

[00:00:30] this vacant office building collapse. It's very interesting. Awesome. So you're not buying this building. No, I'll tell you why we're all doing it like. Yeah. Right? Yeah, like it. So this is exactly what I've been trying to tell everybody. It's basically worth the land plus demolition. So it's listed at 7.5 million dollars now just just give me a little perspective. It's a hundred and 17,000 square feet. So that's a pretty big office building. It's four

[00:01:00] stories. It's in great shape and it can be though, but it's 100% vacant. So so if you just take a look at the math, I figured that's probably you know 250 300 dollars of foot roughly to replace it not included the land. So you know it's somewhere in north of 30 million will just say that means there's a lender of 20 million probably at least.

[00:01:27] And that also means that there was equity from somewhere. Okay, right? So those are the two things and it's being sold for seven. And I don't know. I don't even think I'm not interested in it at seven. Right because it's like seven acres. So they're basically asking a million bucks an acre.

[00:01:47] And not including the demo. So what's like a normal price per acre would you say? Well, traditionally it depends on the height obviously you can go for four stories because the office buildings there.

[00:01:59] You know, we would want to pay probably about 30 thousand dollars a unit 20 to 40 thousand dollars a unit for dirt. Okay, so just to put things in perspective. Obviously.

[00:02:14] You get about 17 to 20 units per acre. You know, that's that's that's traditional. So we would want now this one you might be able to go a little higher. You probably you're probably looking at.

[00:02:26] You know some garage parking now below perhaps a lot of it's going to depend on this what the city allows which of course is also a huge thing. So when it's zoned office and it's zone light industrial. I looked it up. It's it's called A1 zoning in

[00:02:34] Phoenix city Phoenix. And so you have to get that changed that you have to go to what's called high density residential. That would be another thing. So you know, you so density is how many units can you get on there? That would be one. So you have to change the zoning. But then you also have to bring the whole concept to the city.

[00:02:44] So you have to say you have to hire an architect. You have to get all that stuff. All the inch, all this what we call the soft costs right? You have to get all that stuff. The renderings all that stuff together and be able to present.

[00:02:54] So you know, so density is how many units can you get on there? That would be one. So you have to change the zoning but then you also have to bring the whole concept to the city.

[00:03:04] So you have to say you have to hire an architect. You have to get all that stuff. All the inch, all this what we call the soft costs right.

[00:03:11] So the renderings all that stuff together and be able to present something to the city. Right. So let's just move it back a little there. How do jumping in here? But so basically what you just said is that if they could get 20 units on and they were paying 30,000 a unit then it would be 600,000. So you think it's about half.

[00:03:31] Oh, it's the real man. Yeah, it's less than half for sure. You know, it's they're asking seven. Obviously it's it's a land play at this point with. It's too bad because it's a nice office building.

[00:03:46] Right and like you said, you know, just a few years ago it would have been worth a lot more if it was 100% occupied.

[00:03:52] So this I like to this is why I always tell people you what's a property worth. It's obviously worth a lot more if it's occupied.

[00:03:59] Well, but I do want to so so I have to, you know, bring up what everyone's kind of talking about which is why not just convertive to.

[00:04:08] Yes, I'll just make it most family like there's all these empty office buildings. You just got to make them all most I feel like.

[00:04:15] You guys if you saw the building, you would not want to live there. One of the one of the things is the location itself.

[00:04:23] I wouldn't want to let's put it this way. I wouldn't take you on a date there. Let's put it that way.

[00:04:28] I mean, it's not a place that you'd really want to be maybe during the day but not during at night. So it does have a couple really positive things.

[00:04:38] Let's talk about that first. It's located near a major freeway, okay, like a block off it's in an opportunity zone which is good.

[00:04:48] So if those of you don't know what opportunities zones are, you should look them up. It's actually a heck of an opportunity to raise money into opportunity zones and redevelop areas.

[00:04:57] Typically these opportunities zones are in areas that a lot of people don't want to be but that's the whole point of them is to revitalize areas that not a lot of money is going to be.

[00:05:07] Not a lot of money is flowing into and it does have the new light rail going near it. So I don't know if I was to stop there there but having a light rail as transportation or access is good. Those are the positives.

[00:05:22] The negatives is there's a failed mall across the freeway and you know we've talked a little bit about malls. You know, malls are just going to just getting beat up right because you guys everyone on this watching here they want their stuff like today like you know they order a jacket they order dog food doesn't matter

[00:05:42] they want it today that you're not even leaving your houses anymore like the boxes are just showing up as you guys know okay so malls are dead now but mostly they're credible spots like these malls are like right in the middle of these credible places generally.

[00:06:00] So this mall across the freeway is being redeveloped and one of the things that the mall developers try to do because they're also losing money across like this is like within maybe less than a quarter mile.

[00:06:13] 2500 more units so the mall developers try to get a apartment people, Barbara guys developers could cut construction across the freeway and this particular office building is 100% vacant it's also trying the same thing.

[00:06:28] So so one the land cost is too high to it's not entitled it's you know there's a lot of there's a lot of upfront work the city has to prove it.

[00:06:37] And and then you have all that potential supply going up in the across the street and it's a redevelopment area which is.

[00:06:45] And you know also it's good and bad and but the opportunities own is probably what people are trying to hang their hat on.

[00:06:52] So I want to run this video that you did that kind of goes over some of this office to multifamily conversion because I think that this is an important topic because a lot of people are talking about this right now so Jerry can you to that up please.

[00:07:07] So I just sold this building for over nine million dollars we got a huge profit but I'm going to show you today why you can't convert office buildings into residential so we're going to be careful because I don't own the building anymore so come on with me.

[00:07:19] So here's the first reason so you see these bathrooms they have bathrooms like this on every floor so this is three floors they have first second and third floor so if I'm going to convert this to residential and let's say each floor played is say 10,000 feet.

[00:07:35] I'm probably going to get maybe four or five units at the most out of each particular suite for residential and so one of the biggest things is how do you figure out all the plumbing and the sewage of course the water heaters the washes and dryers all those things and the kitchens for all these individual sweet.

[00:07:55] So just think about offices that you've been in or maybe you work in so in most offices like this building you don't have bathrooms inside each individual suite so this would require all the plumbing all the sewage all the stuff to be ripped up into the concrete and actually rerun for all of this particular building.

[00:08:17] So that's the first problem and then in addition to that not all offices of course especially even smaller ones have kitchens so you'd have all of that as well just that alone would be the millions of dollars to be able to rip down into the concrete and then to plump all the way up also who wants to live in an environment like this where everything pours out into this little courtyard which is of course an office building.

[00:08:41] So when people are coming and going of course for business it's fine but how about for residential like where people go to par that a lot of come visit where what are you going to do if you have a pet.

[00:08:52] And most importantly like when you move into a place you want to fit this center you want to pool you want all those kinds of things you want a lot of common area amenities like that so you have to put all of that in and if you put a fitness center into this building of course it would just take away from the property itself.

[00:09:09] So we're now on the elevator of course one of two that goes from the one to the third floor and here's the thing this building is already let's say nine million dollars so if I'm able to get four or five units per floor which would be say 12 to 15 units there's no way that I would pay four or five six hundred thousand dollars for each unit and that's before the renovations.

[00:09:33] There you go so I wanted to break that down just because you know the first issue with a conversion and mind you they are marketing this as a possible.

[00:09:48] They are actually that's why I came to me yeah I'm the multifamily guys so I got it in my inbox right so the first issue with that is it needs to be zone correctly and you touched on this at the beginning but you didn't really dive into this so

[00:10:00] in order to be zone correctly you wouldn't be able to really know if it would be because they're in the process of getting it zone correctly but in order to get that approved you need a plan you need like an architectural plan drawn to present to the city.

[00:10:15] Yep so just I'll just walk you through that so there's a reason why nobody can build let's say an industrial building next to your residential home or you know there's a reason why when you go to industrial area everything's industrial

[00:10:28] or you know everything single family as an example or light industrial or whatever there's you know specific areas are on airports specific areas are on shopping centers and stuff like that where things are zoned

[00:10:40] and this is zoned a one in which adfenix is light industrial so that's the zoning today now can it be changed yes have we done that before yes but there's a process and it's not easy.

[00:10:55] So you have to go to the city you have to get them to change the zoning and the way that they are going to do that is if you have to show them a better plan and so there's a process and a cost at a takes time.

[00:11:08] Let's just step one step so then once and if that gets approved then you have the issue of how much it's going to cost to renovate the building if you convert it right I actually think it's like a full rip down personally.

[00:11:23] I probably wouldn't try right but if you're going to convert it's that's what everyone's talking all right so let's say it's a hundred seventeen thousand square feet we know this right and let's say that the average unit is a thousand feet that means you got a hundred and seventeen units that's it.

[00:11:42] Right at a thousand that's if everything the math works perfectly now you might have two one bedrooms and studios and two bedrooms and three bedrooms and all that kind of stuff in there but on the average you know you're it's a no low 100 so just that alone.

[00:11:58] I can tell you from personal experience we don't try to do anything under 200 units because it takes the same amount for me to run a one hundred and seventeen unit converted office building as it does a 200 unit office or a multi family building so the staff the overhead a lot of things are very similar in other words that extra eighty 90 units takes about the same amount of people so

[00:12:27] so your costs operational costs are going to be significant. So what so about how much do you think it is a square foot to do renovations yeah that I haven't figured out okay I'd have to go physically into the building and take a look there's a lot but it would be significant you know because most of those office buildings are set up like all of them do you think it would be more expensive to renovate than to rip down that's why I do yeah I mean you can buy the whole thing

[00:12:56] right now it's listed at seven million I can tell you I think that that's probably about what it costs to renovate realistically and then you know and then so that's why it's easier just to negotiate it down to basically you want a two million and then rip it down and then maybe you've got a developable site you know think about what you want in this location is a high security type building because the locations not great

[00:13:25] now you guys don't have the benefit like I do to know the area I know the area it's not a spot that you're going to want to move you're going to want it gated fence you're going to want the high walls you're going to want in ingress and egress you're going to want two story park and garage probably at the bottom and then units over the top.

[00:13:44] So the construction costs are going to more be more you're not going to want a surface park which means surf this so the way it's set up right now it's all surface parked in the office buildings in the middle you guys have probably seen a thousand of these you pull up there's lots of parking and then you walk to the middle which is the office building.

[00:14:01] You would have to do something from a security standpoint because it's a little dicey in that area at night which is also why it's an opportunity zone well plus you wouldn't have I mean adding that many more tenants I wouldn't think they would have enough parking because it doesn't have a lot of

[00:14:14] had a hundred and seven tenants there was two people to a unit. There's a parking requirement every city is a little bit different but generally it's one space per bedroom so it's not exact but let's say you need one space for one bedroom two spaces for two and three for three.

[00:14:31] So those are certainly things that and then you have to have a D.A. or American disability act you have to have a handicap to there's a whole bunch of things plus you have all the fire.

[00:14:42] ingress egress all that kind of stop there's a lot when you're doing development when you're laying out something there's a lot to consider now this property property already has done a lot of that obviously it probably already has a D.A.

[00:14:55] probably already has all those kinds of things but if you're if you're trying to convert it you're probably fine but the real issue is who wants to live in a converted office building.

[00:15:07] You know what I would call us see or a deal location do you think that there is a world where it's almost dorm style where you just make units and they share the kitchens and they share the bathroom well maybe not my world.

[00:15:22] That was possible yeah I mean that's what I started was in college I don't want to go back there but also with affordable housing maybe I mean that would be more affordable well by the time you convert it's not going to be affordable.

[00:15:38] To do it right so that's actually part of the plumbing and all yeah like.

[00:15:43] I get where you're heading and it's something to it's something to look at but at the end of the deal this this the equities gone the lenders toast and they're just trying to get a little bit for it my I think it's not even worth you know it's worth maybe a million or two bucks because you're going to have to rip it down and then get something permitted.

[00:16:04] You know and that's probably what will happen it'll sell for one or two million bucks maybe three at the most and then somebody might just take a flyer on it and rip it down you know to rip it down into demolish its several million dollars you know that's going to be your basis for your land.

[00:16:21] And then you of course you don't have a ton of a ton of more expenses and you got to get all that approved from the city when people really aren't doing a lot of construction right now because the construction construction loans are what about.

[00:16:34] And for the other thing right yeah so yes I mean you're looking at north north of 10% for renovation or construction debt it's all personal guarantee to by the way which means that.

[00:16:48] You can't hide behind an LLC with a personal guarantee they go after your assets so you know because they're at risk so if you're doing a redevelopment you have that now the opportunity zone is enticing.

[00:16:59] A lot of people raised a lot of money during the opportunity zone time frame this has passed under Trump there actually still some good ones out there we actually Ross and I are doing what.

[00:17:10] And it's it's a great way to divert capital gains into into certain areas well in Brenda said during living would be better than homeless in Eli said I've seen three units sharing a bathroom and I I have seen that in California where different units share bathrooms.

[00:17:27] And but I think that got in order to make these kind of or these apartment conversions worth it the government's going to have to really step in offer certain loans office certain financing offer certain tax credits and then maybe it'll start to make sense.

[00:17:44] Yes all that has to happen I this is the beginning of the office you know we've talked about this we were ahead of this as you guys know in six months a year ago I've been doing videos on this.

[00:17:57] This is just one you you know in one year from now these are going to be everywhere and everybody's got it you know the brokers they don't know quite what to do with them.

[00:18:06] You know you got the same thing you've got to got a seller this one in particular filed for bankruptcy just to you know add a little bit so you have that.

[00:18:17] So you have the bankruptcy protection of the partnership as well.

[00:18:23] You know this is this is a mess so you have done one that as well.

[00:18:28] Yeah it's really and I watched I was kind of looking on YouTube at some of this stuff and I don't know if you agree but I saw a guy on there saying you know the ceiling height has to be a certain height too because when you start putting all the plumbing

[00:18:39] And all the H back systems and every unit you have to have room for that in the ceiling so you don't want to drop a little bit.

[00:18:45] That could be that's a good point yeah so so anything new as you guys though all our stuff that we're building even custom homes your your little you're looking at nine foot ceilings you know so that's kind of the norm now

[00:18:57] And they used to be eight way back so depending on this property you might have that issue as well.

[00:19:03] You know you might have the low ceilings which will help will hurt sorry um you know on the conversion might kill the conversion yeah there's a lot of people you know speaking to this that are trying to do office conversions and very few buildings you know it's like one in 10 or one in 15 or actually able to be converted due to.

[00:19:22] The ceiling heights the locations the age of the building all of the yeah and I the reason we brought this up today is one it just came across my desk it's um it is exactly the model i've been talking about equities gone the lenders going to take it in the shorts they're going to have to write down this loan it's going to affect their you know the banks themselves what that's going to do is going to make those banks pull back on the tightening.

[00:19:49] And um they're going to land last and you know the whole thing is a cycle this is the beginning and you're going to start to see more and more more of these and the you know the point of this video or the point of this talk is not to bang on office building conversions it's just to educate you on that this is the beginning you're going to start to see a lot of these and some of these are going to work yeah some of these deals are going to work they're going to be in the right location they're going to be.

[00:20:16] The right price and you know perhaps it's going to work but this is a big building 170,000 square feet is not a small building when I build something Ross and I build except we have right now a 330 unit property under construction and we're actually finishing up a more in the middle of the lease up you know everything we do is over 200 so.

[00:20:40] You know there's a there's a certain size that you want if you're going to build you might as well build as big as the city of let you and that is kind of the point you want to you want to maximize your density on a piece of land because it maximizes the return.

[00:20:54] And in this particular case you're stepping into a footprint of somebody else and you're restricted when you have the court yards and stuff that's just a waste of space yeah in this particular case there's a lot of surface park all the way around which you don't really even need.

[00:21:08] Now you there is a case for maybe you can build some garages maybe you can put some storage units maybe you can do some other things maybe you can build some other units again it's just cost but also you have to the city has to approve all this.

[00:21:20] You know somebody sit at the city is going to have to agree before this even works and then and only then you got to bring it to the money again you know right how do you raise money yeah you have a bankruptcy.

[00:21:34] You have a lender that's obviously a seller that's already in the fault or a partnership you have a lender that's that's losing it in the shorts and now you're going to go with the new plan so i'm not saying I can't happen but now this this is going to be a very interesting time.

[00:21:50] You know Becky said that you need to tell this to Congress she feels I know you need to present to Congress so just add to the show other ship give me a meeting i'll just show these buildings are there they're popping up.

[00:22:04] It's not like by the way this bill used to see the pictures they these are some nice interiors like marble beautiful lobbies and like these are this is not by any stretch of the mean a.

[00:22:19] A property that you would ever even think that you would rip down right yeah it's it's very interesting um so make sure I have a webinar coming out on Wednesday it's free if you're sitting on your house and you're wondering whether to sell it or.

[00:22:34] Rent it out or what you're staying at this is the webinar for you go ahead and go to kenmacquarie.com forward slash a webinar Steve will put it in the chat and join me one p.m. Pacific.

[00:22:49] i'm fine.

[00:22:51] So let's jump into our questions from Ken pro for those listening on YouTube make sure you ask i'll get to a couple of your questions so our first question comes from Alex.

[00:23:03] They said ken with the state of the economy and how volatile.

[00:23:09] A yield savings account is still worth it while interest rates are still high.

[00:23:14] How long do you think that'll last in what are some similar i'm.

[00:23:17] Yeah it's a good question yeah it's actually a great one funny i was thinking about this.

[00:23:22] You know so let's talk about what a high yield savings account is you know if you guys aren't you should be sitting in cash at least four and a half to mid fives somewhere there's a ton of ton of banks that have now.

[00:23:39] Open this up so for those of you have money sitting in cash you'd be crazy not to have it be earning let's say five percent somewhere okay so that's huge that's a huge thing.

[00:23:51] Number one think about what that does to a bank think about if you are the bank.

[00:23:58] All right your job is to keep deposits and before you are under not even one right okay so now all of a sudden you have let's call it a four percent cost back to your customer right to not lose them as a customer so that's a problem for the bank.

[00:24:15] The other thing is what do you do with that money like how do you make more money how do you how do you make more than five percent somewhere that's the real problem and it's hard to do that because interest rates are high.

[00:24:32] So interest rates are high so i was just looking at like this deal as an example we just talked about or you know working in a number of deals every week.

[00:24:41] You what's killing the deals is the cost of the debt.

[00:24:45] And and then of course for those of us who raise money you know do syndications or you know get money from other people in the form of equity.

[00:24:55] There's a cost of equity so if I'm if i'm trying to get you know equity from you and you're sitting at five percent in savings.

[00:25:06] I can assure you then unless i'm well above that five percent you're not going to pass a nickel over to me and you're doing it right now probably in a government.

[00:25:15] T bill so or i'll say a high savings rate at one of these big national banks so and i so it's it's a weird time and and i don't see it changing anytime soon i think was the question i think you're going to see these high savings rates for a while.

[00:25:32] The problem with that is very similar to what we're seeing with these people that that did these cash out refies are sitting in these low loans.

[00:25:41] If you're getting a lot of money in their savings account and your your options are let's say real estate or development or the stock market the last thing you really want

[00:25:52] is to move your money like you're i a lot of people are just totally comfortable at five percent and i can see why so you know.

[00:26:01] So i think this is here for a bit.

[00:26:03] Yeah absolutely.

[00:26:05] I wanted to get to a you two question property manager with asking can you try to get land re can do you try to get land re zoned for your

[00:26:13] multi-family projects or do you try to back into land that's already zoned multi-family by the city.

[00:26:18] That's good question so you can do it either or so it's not uh you know black and white it's if you are trying to buy something like let's say this office building let's

[00:26:29] just use the example that we started with.

[00:26:31] I would not ever put any money at risk until it was zoned so same thing though if it's just a vacant piece of land with um some alternative kind of zoning.

[00:26:43] So typically a lot of times we're not really going from office to residential that's going to be a little harder typically you're going from

[00:26:53] call it low density residential to high density residential so generally in the what the zoning maps if you look at them there's like let's just say one house per acre.

[00:27:04] To four houses per acre to ten houses per acre or to you know 40 houses per acre or something you know like there's different levels of residential zoning and so the multi-family falls into the highest level there

[00:27:15] and what you're trying to do is get high density residential so that's more typical um but a lot of times these neighbors come out

[00:27:24] they're like no then didn't be not in my backyard we don't want we don't want apartments next to you know next to us so so they're um so that's the risk so you never buy anything with without zoning

[00:27:40] and obviously even with zoning it doesn't mean that the city is going to let you have that kind of density so I'll give you a couple examples so you might have high density

[00:27:50] zoning on a piece of property so this has happened this happens to us every deal and so the broker saying oh yeah you can get you know 40 units per acre on this deal which means

[00:28:01] that you have to be at least four stories well the city might have a hightware climate and they might not let you and you might have some setbacks for parking or maybe

[00:28:13] stew sewer or storm or just green you know they don't want it you know they want some open space and there's open space requirements and those kinds of things so you have all of these things

[00:28:25] so let's say it's 10 acres and the the broker might be saying there you could do 400 units on there we probably are going to end up closer to 250

[00:28:35] so you know so it's marketed one way based on the zoning but at the end of the day after it's gone through all of the approvals you might not get you know maybe in the mid 200s on that same site

[00:28:48] so the reason that's important is because if you're banking your price on 400 units and then you're able to do 250 you made a mistake

[00:28:58] so you know so all of those things are factors and so you want to make sure that whatever it is that you're going to do on that property you know before you close

[00:29:08] so our next question comes from Alex from YouTube or I'm sorry um from Andy from YouTube kind of would you

[00:29:14] protect the commercial real estate crash affecting real estate markets and the economy and will it create another 2008

[00:29:22] oh it's a good question I don't think it'll create another 2008 number one I do not now you got to look at

[00:29:28] the difference most of the commercial buildings are sitting in the hands of Wall Street or high

[00:29:35] network people right so you know call it the 1% maybe that's probably not a good accurate description but

[00:29:44] you know you're talking about managed money right and it might be yours actually might be in a pension or insurance company

[00:29:51] or a tire of plan or something you never know um but I can assure you when you're driving down the road

[00:29:56] and you're looking up and you're seeing these high rises you know it's not mom and pop right this is

[00:30:03] this is Wall Street managed money and whether it's BlackRock or you know any of the big companies

[00:30:10] that's managed money that's not their money that's that's money that's actually your

[00:30:14] it's main streets money that they've convinced you that they need a manage um so you know

[00:30:19] that's what it is and and so it'll it'll show up in that quarterly statement um what will happen

[00:30:27] is it'll severely affect lending that's for sure it probably won't create like a 2008 which I

[00:30:35] went through and that was more you know you could fog a mirror in by a house like you know like they

[00:30:41] were that was an individual that was an individual that couldn't pay and um you know they were

[00:30:47] walking away from single family so we don't have a single family problem because actually were

[00:30:53] severely under on the single family if you look at the numbers I think we're less than 50% of

[00:30:59] the listings uh you know historic labriges so so we have a supply problem on the single family side

[00:31:04] and um we have a we're gonna have an oversupply on the office buildings we're gonna have a two year

[00:31:11] to three year oversupply a multi-family um and then you know retail industry all that stuff that's

[00:31:17] kind of a jump ball depending on where it is um but there's all kinds of stuff going on and commercial

[00:31:21] category gets lumped into a huge category you think of everything in their office retail multi-family

[00:31:28] industrial you know there's and there's more you know self storage all that stuff's inside of there

[00:31:34] they're all very different absolutely and I want to get to Marcin's question um how do you think

[00:31:40] that these discounted offices will impact the evaluations for offices that are 100% least or do

[00:31:48] you think that it's a really ex-stute question um it's it's it's good I know I hate to use this word

[00:31:56] but it depends so if you have 100% occupied property then you are certainly in a very good position

[00:32:05] depending on your debt uh but cap rates have gone up and that does affect value so you got to look

[00:32:12] at the capitalization rate so for those of you might not know you got your net operating income

[00:32:17] and then you got your cap rate and you divide that into it and that is your typically your value

[00:32:22] so your net operating income is higher if you have higher occupancy and if you're at 100%

[00:32:29] it's even better but as cap rates go up then your value does go down and I think that uh

[00:32:37] clearly if you've got failing office buildings in your in your little area that you're in

[00:32:44] and you're sitting at 100% that can be good it can't be bad you know maybe like I sold an office

[00:32:50] building actually the video that you guys saw we our average our average um office size was about

[00:32:59] 2500 to 3000 so what we what we're finding is that that actually market is still pretty good

[00:33:07] so you know people that want a couple thousand feet are still actually engaged on the office

[00:33:13] it's the big ones you know it's the people that have you know 50,000 100,000 20,000 you know they're

[00:33:21] pairing back so a lot of it just depends and also if you're if you're an office building owner

[00:33:27] and you have a bunch of buildings around you that are vacant and you're you know the last one standing

[00:33:32] in a good location you're probably going to be fine so you know there's a bunch of factors that's

[00:33:37] why I say it depends awesome well I hope you guys enjoyed thanks for listening as always thank

[00:33:43] you for listening to this episode of the real estate strategies podcast if you liked what you heard

[00:33:49] please give us a five star review on iTunes and let us know what you thought of today's episode

[00:33:54] thank you and we'll see you next week

bankruptcysolutions,constructioncosts,economicshifts,financialimplications,marketanalysis,officetoresidential,propertyconversion,realestateinvestment,realestatetrends,urbandevelopment,urbanregeneration,zoningchallenges,