The Hidden Hiring Freeze No One Is Talking About

Welcome to the Ken macrory Show. Today, we're going to discuss the FED is currently split on rate cuts in December. Will be interesting, kind And I also went to Las Vegas and spoke to a property manager and we have some great insight there as well. Yeah, I know, well, let's start with a FED because that's the one on everybody's mind. I saw that it's actually ticking up toward potentially a rate cut, so it was really like below fifty percent. Yep, yep. You know. I think what they're doing is they're looking and they're seeing kind of the state of the economy and they're trying to balance it with inflation. And we've been talking about this for a long time, where you know, the FED has to decide between the economy and inflation, and it seems like some of the members are leaning towards focusing on inflation and some of the members want to focus on the economy. Well, one of the things the FED is wrestling with is the fact that the government shutdown didn't actually produce a lot of the numbers that they were supposed to be getting right, and there's so there's all these government agencies and analysts and economists and every book everything that they kind of produce things when you're on this treadmill, right, and then when that stopped, they don't have a lot of that data. So that's going to really play into December. I think it is. It is, and they have to look at the facts. I mean, mortgage rates have been up, they're not really going down very much. Savings are at almost a record glow. The job market is cooling off, and you know, housing affordability just isn't there. The one thing, though, I will say, is we're heading into Black Friday. We're heading into this big call it consumer month, I guess, right, thirty days of consumerism, Yeah, right, where people, you know, for all kinds of reasons, they purchase all kinds of stuff for the holidays, right, and us included. Right. It's kind of a thing. I guess we've all fallen into it. But that does help. It does help the economy. It puts people to work, albeit temporary. And it's interesting though, because I keep asking different retailers when I go somewhere, you know, house business, you know, and I keep hearing that it's a super slow holiday season so far. Be interesting. Once Black Friday hits and you know, once December hits, but so far they're reporting they're really. Yeah, the first half of November for sure, but you know, I think the I think we're going to see some pretty robust movement here in the next thirty days. You know, we got Thanksgiving right around the corner. We've got Black Friday, course, and a lot of people they've got this new week called Cyber Week, right, which is a new brand. Well, I keep hearing everyone's shopping online for everything now, you know, I've been hearing that a lot too, you know, even from the people I go to the retail shops and they're like, well, I finished my Christmas shopping last night. I did it all online. So it's like, yeah, definitely a lot easier. And we we have friends that are in what's called the DSP or direct service providers for Amazon, and they're gearing up from employee wise, and you know, like you go into these stores and they have it's a it's like a temporary help thing, right. You can make some pretty good money in a thirty day window. So now it's not the real economy now, I think that's that's a fact. But we are heading into probably a pretty good time. So I'd be surprised, and I'm going to go on record here because it's I think the FED probably will lower about a quarter point. It'll be it'll be welcomed heading into the next year. Well, let's talk about the two groups that there are in the FED. Because they're both making, you know, very good points. Is why they hold their position, and honestly, because they have this dilemma of two things happening at once a weeker economy with inflation. You know, neither one of them are wrong. It just depends on which you prioritize. So we have CAMPE, which is the cut sooner group. You know, obviously they're looking at inflation as cooling. It's not as hot and as high as it was, but it's still not two percent. It's about three percent. The job market is softening. We're seeing that, and we'll probably see that even more at the beginning of the year because that's kind of typically people don't like to lay off during the holidays. Real estate market being frozen, you know, there's not a lot of activity going on, and you're seeing you know, consumers are kind of maxed out, they don't have much savings, they're maxed out on their credit cards, you know, so the economy really isn't moving much right now. So that's kind of what they're looking at and why they think that there needs to be a rate cut. And their fear is if they don't, you know, they don't if they wait too long, then we could put us into a recession. Yeah, and I still think, well, every single day there's an article that comes out about AI, right and how it's displacing things that I never would have thought about. Like last last week, I sent it over to our friend Jason, who is the executive chef at a incredible place here in Phoenix called The Global Ambassador. But there was an article about an AI chef in Dubai and he's like, what, check this out. It's it's literally and so so just when you thought AI was, you know, kind of tackling them, you know, kind of the the I guess meaning meaningless tasks for emails and inbox stuff and you know, automation at a low level. You hear that kind of stuff and you're like, wow, you know, I guess it really does uh and can go as high as possible. Yeah, you and I kind of disagree on this because everything I'm looking at e AI. It's doing some menial things like putting together recipes. It's great for looking certain kind of things up, but it's I don't see it taking over at this point too many jobs. It's definitely taking over some jobs, but it's not really like it was touted to be this big thing and the results that they're getting so far is like putting together recipes or maybe you know, legal advice or you know, just stuff like that, but it's not really it's not replacing a lot of jobs yet. Well, yeah, I I think I think you have a timing issue. So there. I read the Morgan Stanley report recently. They said it takes about three years for any kind of new anything new like that to kind of roll out. The one thing that I just watched the thing with Gary V. I love watching Gary V. He's usually on the top of and the leading on stuff. He said, Google ads are done. He said in the next thirty six months. In the next thirty six months, Google ads are going to be gone and they're being replaced by AI and chat GPT. So I think it's big. I don't think we see it all and it's going to be interesting to see, you know how far it goes. And the reason the only reason I bring this up is because one of the Fed's mandates is employment. And when when you have, you know, ticking unemployment up, then you know the Fed's going to be worried and that's actually going to keep rates where they are. I think that the one thing that we will start to see next year. Next year is going to be the year where employers are going to start to look at how can they grow without adding employees because okay, so that is the same as not hiring people. And so even in my own firm, we had a one day meeting last week and I asked our accountant, I said, right now, we have one accountant per six to seven properties. That's you know, that's kind of the ratio, right, how many properties one accountant can handle each month? And she told me. Our CFO said, I think we can get this up to twelve. So basically, what that means is that that accountant should be able to with efficiency, be able to do twice the load. And I think that's what I'm talking about. When I'm talking about I'm not saying that there's this huge job losses. What I'm seeing is that the businesses are starting to look at how they can do more and not actually higher and. They're having to. Then they're starting to embrace this too. I think last year or twenty twenty five, I should say we're still in it. You know, people are kind of toying around with it, right, But next year I believe it's going to be the year that people start to embrace it. How can I implement this into my business? And because costs are going up, not just for people but for businesses. Well, that's what I was going to say, is the reason businesses are looking at this. It's not really much different than a normal cutback in the economy, you know, where people have to take on more of a workload because they're trying to skim on employees. But then now, right, you have this AI element which does make it easier. Let's go into this can't be the way longer group, because you know, there is this other side of it where they're like, let's not cut rates. And the main argument here is inflation, right, and they're saying, you know, we haven't hit two percent inflation, and if we start cutting rates, we run the risk of you know, creating a bubble in assets and making inflation worse for your average American. Yeah, And the one thing that I think a lot of people can agree on is that we haven't seen the crazy inflation from the tariffs. Yeah, so the terraff that he implemented in April, you know, they kind of rolled out in June to an extent, But I don't even know what that percentage is right now. Well, I guess let's just move right straight to inflation. There. Have we seen a real rapid inflationary. Now at three percent? Yeah, you know, and they wanted it too, but we argue if they'll ever actually get to to But I think what they're worried about is we're teetering at three So it's like if they cut rates and then what does it go to? Yeah, and I think they got it out. I think it was down the two eight or two nine or something, and it's just kind of hovering right there. So Yeah, to your point, it'll be interesting to see that where that goes. But I think the bigger can cern for me is the unemployment. If unemployment goes the other way, and I think we're going to have a pretty strong Q four. But next year, I'm telling you this summer, next year, interest rates might not change much through through all of next year, very very very little. Half point here, quarter point or quarter point quarter point here here. You know that that that that's pretty much what I think based on kind of the push pull of inflation and unemployment. Yeah, I mean there's really a high stakes, you know, guess, right, depending on what they choose to do, keep cutting rates or you know, not right, because if they cut too soon, you could have major inflation, which hurts the average American. But then if you cut too late, then you have job loss and a garter economy, which hurts the average American. So it really is such a balancing act. And you know, in the seventies they cut too soon and they had major inflation. But yet you know in eight they cut too late, and then that's when they had the Great Recession. Yeah, and just in two thousand and one or twenty twenty one, you know when we inflation went to nine point one, they raised too late. Right, So they always seem to be I guess we're trying to predict something and we just already know that they're probably going to be late. They're always chasing, you know, It's like they're always chasing everything real. Yeah, the one thing they did right was in COVID, well sort of, but in COVID, you know, they cut right away and then that prevented us from going into any kind of recession. But to your point, they raised too late and then that's yeah. And by the way, they if you guys remember they were doing three quarters of a point like bam, bam bam, like right in a roll. I think we were. We were over two percent higher just. With three meetings. So h yeah, it'll be interesting to see. But I think the wildcard for me is if I was going to use my crystal ball through twenty twenty six. Uh is the non hiring of AI not necessarily cutting the non hiring, yeah, and which is the same as you know, non growth. Yeah, and I mean it's really it doesn't go as fast as non hiring, but it I'm sorry, as cutting, but it you know it have you know, somebody loses their job, it's very hard to get another one if companies aren't hiring. And I actually do think in the Q one January February, you're going to see a lot of cutting just because that's typically when businesses do it. They typically don't do it at the end of the year. Yeah, there's a tremendous amount of commerce that happens in the last quarter really for tax purposes, for holiday purposes, and all this stuff. So I think Trump probably wants to quarter point cut. I would guess, you know, it sets them off into a good start for twenty twenty six. Yeah, and you know, we have to look at how this impacts housing directly, you know, and if there's no cutting and then mortgage rates are going to stay elevated. I know that the FED cutting does not automatically lower mortgage rates, but it does help, you know, the banks make that decision. So you know, if they stay elevated. Right now, they're at you know, about six to seven percent depending for investors, they are about six and a half to seven percent. It was sort of very high rates. It takes a lot to make a deal. Cash flow in this market. There's some uncertainty. We can't find real estate that's cash flowing, and the alternatives are are squarely. It's a hard time to know where to invest as an investor because you know, nothing's great right. Right right, sounds like where should I go? That people are just sitting on the sidelines they're in commodities like gold and silver. That's why it's part of the reason it's up. They're in money markets, they're in t bills. They're literally just waiting because nothing really feels like it's worth the risk or worth the cash flow. Yeah, and I that's exactly right. So I would say, you know you're in neutral, right the economies in consumers are in neutral. Yep, they are. And you know, sellers, you know, when mortgage rates stay high, these sellers stay locked in. I mean, I you know, you're just not seeing a ton of listings. Most of the listings you're seeing, like we said, our flippers, Airbnb, second homes, they're typically not people in two or three percent mortgages because it really doesn't make sense to walk away from that. But also there's a lot of people are pulling things off the market. They're delisting right now. Oh yeah, right, big yep. Yeah. And so I would expect that you're going to see, you know, second half of January a bunch of stuff relisted. Yep. I think you'll see a lot of things relisted. But I still don't think you're going to see the panic of selling either. I just think people are relisting it and they're just seeing if it sells basically no. But I like, I like being on neutral untill about probably March, you know, late February, mid February, March, because here's what there's going to be when people start relisting, that's going to increase supply and then sellers are You're gonna have days on market increasing. Right. So I think spring the summer next year is going. To be an excellent time. Yeah. And I think this fifty year mortgage product rolls out early next year, you know, Q one, maybe Q two. And I think the reason Trump is doing that is it's not difficult for him to do and the banks just have to agree to it, and it's not it won't be fixed most likely, so it it's a good deal for them too. And I kind of think that Trump sees the writing on the wall that interest rates are not going to significantly lower, so something has to give to try to make the yeah tracket move. I don't know about the fifty year yet. I'm still fifty to fifty on the fifty. Year, but I will One thing is for sure is not working and will not happen, is that portable mortgage. Yeah, that's got guys. I had a you know, I was on the Gram Stephan Show last week and we were having this conversation I can't remember. If it was live or off off line, and I. Said, well, what everyone forgets is that the mortgage actually doesn't belong to the consumer. Right, It's an investment. It's it's not there's to decide. I'm just going to take my mortgage and move it to another asset. Who cares about Bank of America. I know you don't really mind, but I'm just going to take your mortgage and moved over here. So that's for sure not going to happen. But the fifty year. Could, right, Yeah, that's the most likely. I know it's not everyone's favorite, but it's something's got to give, right, And the rates on the fifty year could potentially be lower than the thirty because it most likely wouldn't be fixed, because that's what you know. In Canada has a fifty year mortgage and it resets every five years. Yeah, yeah, the rate will be interesting, you know, because there's been talk about maybe the rate could be even higher on a fifty year because the risk is higher, which again kind of defeats the whole point of a fifty year Yeah, but they have fifty years in New Zealand and hand and other countries and so and they do work. And I think in Japan you actually can transfer that to your airrors. Yeah. It's generational. Yeah, but they're they're housing economies a little different. It's there. They have a very slow housing economy. Well they do now, that's for sure, but when you were a wee one, it was a little bit different. So let's look at the different scenarios in which the FED could cut sooner or cut later. And you mentioned the one if unemployment were to spike or you know, job openings crash, then that could or real estate freezes even more than that could push the fed's hand because they're very split right now, so they're really looking at all this data day to day right before December to decide what they're going to do. Yeah, obviously, that's that's an obvious one, right and you already know where I stand. There, yep, yep. And I think with scenario two, you know, if there's any kind of spike in inflation, no matter what it's too, that could push them the other way. Oh yeah, yeah, that's the other one. Right, Yeah, the confusion around tariffs and all the other things. Yeah, it's going to be interesting. It's a big deal, even if it's just a quarter point, because it's showing their positioning, right, are they focusing on the economy or are they focusing on inflation? And so it will be telling and interesting to see what they do in December. And one of the things I think could affect a non rate cut, even though I predicted there would be one, it's going to be the lack of data. If you if you take a look, they rely on data, certain certain data, and when the government shut down happened, then obviously they have less data to determine. And again, if that would be me, i'd probably go neutral. Well, here's the thing. If they don't have data, they actually have to pool some of their data from other sources to like just common sense what's happening right now, And that's what they're going to do. But everyone's going to look at different sources for that, you know, So it will be it'll be interesting. You know, it's a big deal for those that say that the what the Fed does does not directly, you know, affect mortgage prices. I know that it's more the bond market. But at the same time the rates are down quite at like half a point since they started cutting, so the banks are kind of they do use that information as wow. It does trend, it's not direct like you. Said, right. So we had a fun twenty four hours in Vegas last week. We're Neil. Got to experience my my normal pace. Oh my god. We literally like we filmed our live in our podcast went to Vegas. Yeah, we filled it and we well filmed at nine, took off at eleven, landed at twelve, hit the ground running. And we were supposed to get already and have this nice dinner and we didn't have time, so we wait at the bar, made it to our comedy show, and left the next morning. So perfect night. But it was fun. We went on the Grand Stuff and podcast. As Ken mentioned, he's awesome, him and his partner Jack. They were great. Yep, yep, two young guys just yet full of piston vinegar. I loved it. I loved it. And Greb's really, really really, you know, educated himself on a lot of stuff, so he really knows a lot about a lot. He pours himself into the knowledge side. It was impressive and Jack. You know, he tried to act like he didn't know much about real estate, but at the same time he syndicated the deal. He put his friend in his house that he bought. The back used to be a church, but the back a lot. You know, they made their podcast studio. So it's pretty cool, really cool. Well, they're scrapping it out just like just like I was at that age. It's it's neat to watch and it's fun that they can talk about it. Yeah, it's totally great, and it's a great, you know, inspiration for young people because I think Jack's what twenty seven, twenty eight years old, you know nothing, no you know, inherited or anything. He's just scrapping it out on his own too. So yeah, I asked him, I said, how old were you? I was talking about the GFC in two thousand and eight. I said how old were you? He looked at me egos, I was ten. I know, you guys give him so much crap for that ten years. Old, but I just love it, you know, really really cool, good guys. So while we were there, though, we decided obviously to make our work trip out of it since we were flying out there, and we met with Ken has a property manager. Ken own's a couple of condos in Vegas, and so we met with his property manager and a few different things. You know, we're interesting on his take on the property. Well, let me back up. So twenty years ago, Ross and I did a four hundred and forty unit condo conversion on this project. So we bought the property. It was an apartment building and then we converted it to condos and I did that. I did several in Las Vegas, and I what we would always do is we would keep the models, right, because you need models to sell condos, and so we would buy them. We would buy a couple units personally, and then we furnish them and then you know, thousands of people will go through them. And so you. Know, fast forward. I bought them all cash. Twenty years ago, I still own them and I hadn't seen him forever, right, And so I went up to meet with my property manager, Tony Toronto, and I said, Tony, you know, let's let's go take a look at this project. I hadn't been on it in over ten years. Yeah, yeah, and it was very interesting. So Ken has two units. He's had a couple guys running one unit for fifteen years. They've been there for fifteen years. Talk about you know good tenants. Right zero vans see in fifteen years. Yep, yep. And then the other one, you know, Ken had a squatter in because it was vacant. And Ken was the reason for our meeting with him is we were considering selling it. But what you let us know is, you know, the Vegas market's a little bit soft right now, and he would probably put a reunner in there and hold it. Yeah. So what happened was just like like like anybody, I guess, the renner moved out and the U during that period of time, somebody else watter moved in. Yeah. So they had like somebody and they had the classic where the they had the electrical cord out over the wall plugged into like some you know some the common area plug uh you know. And but by the time Tony caught it, which is you know, withinside of a week he said, hit, it was pretty trashed. Yeah, and they had already moved out. Then then he cleaned it up and then they moved in again. Oh I didn't. Yeah, it happened twice. So they're like sweed, Yeah, he's like, I'm not sure how they're getting in because it's all locked up, but there we figured it out. But anyway, so and some somewhere along the line, I lost my fridge. So that's god. So well, I hope somebody's you know, getting good use out of it. So anyway, it was kind of fun. But it was fun to go on to this project and look around because when I when I finished the property, I did the roofs, I paid the whole project. We redid the landscape, and we redid the parking lot. And the first thing I did is I'm looking around, going, Okay, this thing's a little tired. Well, so this is what was interesting. So we were there and this guy thought we were looking to buy, you know, he thought Tony was our realtor. And so he comes up and he lives there, and he's like, this place is so great. Our hoas only went up five dollars in the past five years. I've lived fifty dollars in the past five years I've lived here, and it's it's amazing. They're so great because of that, and Ken's looking around and he's like the parking lot, he's really. There's millions of dollars. At the third maintenance on the project, I can see easily three or four hundred grands just in the tree. I mean, by the way, this is four hundred and forty units. This is forty some acres. It's a big project. Yeah, but it was interesting. So Ken's looking at you know, we might get hit with a special assessment. And this guy's thrilled. He's only been you know, up fifty bucks in five years. So there is that balance for those that like hate that their hoa keeps going up, you know, it's it's also a problem if they're not making it go up, because then they're not fixing things on the property, and it's gonna they're gonna have to eventually. Yeah, that's right, that's right. But but at the end of the day, we ended up we're gonna we're gonna throw a renter in there, because as you guys know, and as I've been saying right now, it actually is is a great time to be a landlord if you own something, because you know, even though it's soft right now on the rent side, I do think that we're gonna see some serious rent growth here in the. Next few Yeah, And that's the interesting part, you know, like somebody like Ken or just anybody that's in it. You know, I have a condo right now that's you know, at two point eight percent. I'm gonna be listing it next year. But if I don't get what I want for it, I'm just gonna put a runner in there. I mean, I'm not going to like fire sale it, you know. And that's where the situation that most people right now with a mortgage are in is there's no need to fire sale it. Like you can stick a runner in there. You can stay yourself. And you know, well, when I said to Tony, of course I'm owned these for twenty years and all cash. I don't have I don't have any debt. But I said to him, what, I don't know what I would do with the money? Yeah, right, like, which is kind of what we talked about on Monday. I'm alive, right is That's the thing, like everybody's scrambling to figure out, you know, what should they be doing with their money. I mean, if you take a look at the S and P s down twenty percent almost in a month, bitcoins down twenty two percent in a month, you know, you start to look at these things and so so that was what I was calculating my brain, like, Okay, if if the market was opportunistic, I probably would have made a different. Decision, right And you know, people might hear that and say, oh, Ken doesn't need the money, but it's like, no, no, that's not the point. The point is is what would I do with the money, Because like if everything, if bitcoins you know, softening and the stock market softening, you know, and you're only going to get what three percent in a money market, maybe like what are you really going to do with the money that would pay you know, it makes more financial sense just to have somebody be paying rent in there. Yeah, I if I'm seeing inflation and high unemployment, then I actually probably want to be right in the rental space, right. Yeah. So it's it's very interesting. And we went around the market, took a look at and that market is six six weeks free right now, six weeks free for a twelve month leaset. And so it does show up when you when you're trying to buy something. It's interesting because I got this conversation with Graham, He's like, well, why would you buy something like that? I said, I get where you're coming from You know, people want what they really want is they want. The best deal that cash flows. Right, those two things often times don't work together. Sometimes you have to buy in a market that's that's challenging, right, And. Because that's why you're getting such a good deal on the property deal. Right, And that's what I was trying to say. So people are like, well, you know, actually I got a I got a text from Robert Kissockey this morning about something about Vegas, you know, and I'm like, yeah, exactly, that's that's He goes, what should I start buying in Vegas? I go, yes, That's exactly why I'm buying in Vegas. Is you want to buy when things are moving the opposite direction. You know. It's also one of the places if you look at that people are moving in the US right now, if you look at migration patterns or where people are going, Las Vegas is is up there. You know, people are moving there. Yeah, and like with this property, you know, the Vegas downtown is now where most of these tenants are. Most of them work at the hospital, most of them want to be by Summerland, which is a nice area of Vegas and I suburb, so it's not all just casinos and hotels and not part of Vegas and the other The thing is is that to your point, you know, people read headlines like Vegas is you know, down, it's empty, it's you know, it's always so exaggerated because they want clicks. But then people think, oh, this is a horrible time to buy here. But they want to buy when everyone's like everyone's moving, you know, to Vegas it's a hot market, and then they overpay. But but let's just put that in perspective. We were just there. Was that your experience that people Vegas was down and there weren't a lot of. People there, No, I mean no, yeah, we were at. The Cosmo is jammed. Yeah, and we were trying to fly out of there because why because F one started the next day. But it wasn't even enough one crowd. It was really like the Cowboys had a game there, so they had a bunch of Cowboys. The Money Night Football. Yeah, yeah, the Cowboys played the Raiders. And so I'm just telling you guys that I'm not I'm not trying to pitch you on Vegas. I'm just trying to say that we were just there and the place is. Rocking well, and it was interesting because we always liked to talk to the uber drivers, right because they do they know, right, they pick up rides, they understand it. And our uber driver said, you know, yes, it's slower, it's been slow all year compared to the last few years. He goes, but it's not dead. He goes, I think I'm down about you know, fifteen twenty percent in my you know, annual profit so far. And he would kind of know. And the truth is that just because something slower doesn't mean it's crash. It's just like the house it's just this clickbaity titles. It's like, yes, the housing market's slower than it has been the last couple of years. It's not crashing. Yes, Vegas is not as busy as it was the last couple of years. It's not dead, like you know what I mean, Like there's still activity going on. It's just slower. And that's what economies do. They eb and they flow. But I will tell you, having lived in Vegas, I do love. That's the one city I watch. And I'll tell you why. When when people are feeling stressed financially they cut out a Vegas trip, that's a really important thing. They you know, they decide not to fly there, rent a room somewhere, go to dinner, go to a show, go out to club, whatever, whatever, whatever, you know. But there used to be the thousand dollars rule where you know, if you fly to Vegas you spend. At least a grand on you know, all in on something. Right. Well, so so it is interesting and where it shows up in Vegas is actually in the hotel rates. That's where you see it. When you start to see discounts in the with the big casinos and the big hotels. You know, that's when you're when the wind Hotel or or Caesar's. Palace or Aria or Cosmo or you know, when you start to see that, you're going to start to see some softness and and you know, so that's where it shows up first. Yeah, and I but they're also going to a generational thing because as you know, these gen Z kids and even some millennials, like they're not drinking, they can gamble from their phones, like there is like less of an incentive to go to Vegas in the first place. So they're having to rewire their economy a little, which is why I think they brought in you know, the Football Stadium. You know, it's why they're focusing a lot out. They're getting a lot of big performers for the shows because gambling, while it definitely attracts people, you know, there's a lot of places to gamble now of a. Point, I mean if we when we walk around, it's like it was everybody our ages, Yeah, at the tables right right, it's it's not the up and commerce and and you know, casinos, casino gambling. And then I mean even in Scottsdale here we've got a DraftKings. You know, it's a whole sports book and and and of course you can do everything from the phone now and and so there's a race obviously on the tech side. But so that is another good point. So why don't you explain to people why you like ELI in Vegas and why you're investing in the Vegas market. Yeah, So, first of all, I have a history of living there and watching the economy rise and fall and and and it's. Been very very very very strong for a long time. One of the things I like is that it doesn't have a lot of excess supply, right, so you always look for is it oversupplied? And while it was it's being absorbed right now. So this particular area is where you want to be. It's off a FOURD apache and it's up in the Summerlane area, and that's where the growth is, that's where the high end stuff is. That's where the growth is. And so you're we're at Maine and Maine right that's number one. Number two, we're buying it below replacement cost. So if we were to build that project today, you know, we're buying it at easily fifty thousand dollars per unit below, so you know, call it ten million bucks less than it would be if we were to build it. So those are the two factors. And also you cut through all the red tape of the construction, the entitlements in the city and all this stuff you have to do the contractors. So we're basically buying a brand new building that's at the tail end of a lease up, and it's struggling right now to maintain occupancy because it's still kind. Of dealing with the. The excess supply that hit that area as well, because it's the area in Vegas. That you want to be at. So but there'll be a time where that all gets absorbed. And so you know, I figure when I buy an asset like this, I figure, you you got about it, you should budget for at least two years of softness, right of struggle of management, you know, trying to get tenants and all that kind of stuff. And there's nothing wrong with that as long as you because we're long term holders, right, I'm not trying to sell it two years at three years or four years. You know. We hold buildings, you know, over fifteen years. So I don't know how long we'll hold this one, but you know, well we'll see. But we're budget for it. Cash flows today but not what I wanted to and you know, and so we're budgeting for that. If you are credited and you're interested in investing in ELI, just go to mccompanies dot com forward slash ELI. That's e L Y see you guys next week, all right,