The Brutal Truth About Trump’s 50-Year Mortgage Proposal
Ken McElroy ShowNovember 11, 202500:36:4833.7 MB

The Brutal Truth About Trump’s 50-Year Mortgage Proposal

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Ken and Danille McElroy break down Trump’s proposed 50-year mortgage plan and its potential impact on homebuyers, investors, and the overall housing market. They explore how extending mortgage terms could lower payments, unlock trillions in home equity, and ignite both opportunity—and inflation—across America’s frozen housing sector.

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ABOUT KEN: Ken is the author of the bestselling books The ABC’s of Real Estate Investing, The Advanced Guide to Real Estate Investing, and The ABC’s of Property Management. With over two decades of experience in real estate investing, Ken McElroy is passionate about sharing the good life by helping real estate investors grow and prosper. This podcast is a place for Ken to discuss numerous topics connected to real estate investing, including finance, budgeting, the entrepreneur mindset, and creating passive income. Ken offers a wealth of personal experiences, practical advice, success stories, and even some informative setbacks, all presented here to educate and inspire. Whether you’re a new or seasoned investor, the information and resources on this channel will set you on a path where you and your investments can thrive.Ken's company: https://mccompanies.com

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Trump just announced a new proposal for a fifty year mortgage, and this is going to be wild for the real estate market. Yeah, there's all kinds of speculation online around this, and you know, let's talk about what it does and what it doesn't do. I think that's really really important. And by the way, Poulty said that this is highly probable, so we need to start taking a look at this. I actually agree with this because what it's going to do, it's going to lower people for monthly payment. And this is no different than the car dealers what they've done. You know, like when I was buying a car as a kid, they were thirty eight, thirty six and forty eight month you know car payments. Right now you can go out to eighty four right actually probably even more now it's been a while since I financed car. But the point is that's all this is solving. One of the things is solving. The interesting thing is it actually doesn't generate more interest. It's not more expensive to the consumer. It's not, no, no, it's just it's because it's the same interest. Well, right, but when they if they wait the fifty years to pay, and they'll pay. Yeah, but you know, the interest rate on the on the balance, right, it just gets spread over over the term, right, correct. So you know what it does is it gets people into homes. I I you know, homes don't look like they're going anywhere down anywhere time soon. From my standpoint, like, well, what do we have about four hundred, four hundred and fifteen thousand I think was the average price nationally. Of course, guys, I trust me. I know there's homes in your area that are less and there's homes in your area that are more. But the point is it's it's about four fifteen. So here's here's how it breaks down. If if somebody puts twenty percent down and there's the interest rates I think. I look last it was like six point two right now, let's just say that makes their payment about two thousand and thirty four dollars. It's a fifty year. It brings it down in the seventeen hundred change range, right, So it's a it's a significant number, I think. You know. Yeah, And you know we were talking before like we don't know if this is going to be offered also to investors or if it will just be home buyers for their primary. I hope it doesn't. Actually, I know I'm gonna get slayd for this. I hope it does. I know you do. But like we're not trying to create a bubble. I'm telling you, like, this is going to get people to buy homes for sure, guys, it'd be no different than a multiple point interest rate cut. All right, But and then of course, what happens if rates go down. Let's let's go there in a minute. But the reality is the investor, there's a lot of money on the sidelines. Looking we're heading toward a renter o nation. We know this. We're under supplied with housing, we know this. The worst thing that this and by the way, I know I'm gonna get slave for this one. But the worst thing that could happen is to offer this to investors. This we need. We need people like my kids to be able to move into an affordable home, build credit and start building, because don't forget start building their wealth this way. This most of most of America's wealth is sitting in their home equity. And so this is what we want. This is actually going to be negative towards the apartment market, which is my market. It's actually going to bring the mortgage payment right down to about what the national rent payment it's is right now nationally, rents are around in the sixteen hundred range, and the mortgage nationally right now is you know, over two thousand. So there's a big gap between rent and own at the moment, and this is going to close that immediately. And what's going to happen is people are gonna You're going to see these why buy when you can rent? Right so? Or why rent when you could buy? You know, you have this age old problem, you know, depending on where you know, where the mortgage payments, where the interest rates are, where the landlords are either pulling people away from the homemore market or they'll or the home builders are pulling you know, renters out of their out of the rentals, you know, to go buy. So I don't know, what do you think? I yeah, I just think it's going to be interesting to see what they do. You know. Part of this that we're going to get into is you have people sitting in two and three percent mortgages and you need those people to sell. So that's really a big portion of this is not just to make it easier for people to buy, but also make it easier for people to sell and buy something else and stay in a similar payment, you know, a more similar payment than it would be now. And I think that you know, offering this to investors is going to help them sell intern units as well. So I think that it'll be interesting to see you know who who's offered you know this, And this is why they can't just offer it to first time home buyers, because they also need these people to sell their houses that are not first time home buyers. That's a good point. You know. One of the things that I looked at the over the weekend was there thirty four trillion with a t trillion in home equity. Like that's almost as much as the entire stock market, right, it's as certainly as it's the amount of money that's equal to the four to one K retirement market. That is a huge, huge number. Typically, you know, people want access to their home equity, right for stuff. They look at it kind of like an ATM almost right. They don't really look at their four to one K and their retirement plan that way, although some people obviously do that. But there's a huge penalty if you take that money out, so that's kind of locked up, you know, and then the stock market and the bond market that's really you know, that's for that's not really for low income. And I would say even a lot of the middle class doesn't even play around there. So this is a big big thing. If if they if they do fifty year markets and you're sitting on a let's say a five percent mortgage today and you got one hundred or two hundred, three hundred thousand dollars of equity because it's up there, and all of a sudden, to your point, even if you have a six percent mortgage and but you got a fifty year term, you're like, I'm gonna, I'm gonna take this cash and I'm gonna go, I'm gonna I'm I'm gonna start moving moving, moving around. Yeah, and I think too. You know, we were talking about this in the office before we hopped on here, and one of the girls in the office, you know, she's probably you know, they own a home, her and her husband own a home. And she was said, you know, this is who would do a fifty year mortgage because you know, it would take forever to pay off and you'd be paying so much more interest. But the fact of The matter is is that even if you look at it as not obtaining interest, you're fixing your expense, right, You're fixing your you know, if you keep paying rent, rent keeps going up on this, you're fixing your cost on your mortgage at least for fifty years. So that is beneficial, especially if you're younger in the long term. So it's not all just about how much you're paying, you know, and and owning your home free and clear one day. It's also fixing your monthly. Well, you bring up a very good point. I think if you look at the you know, gen Z, gen X, baby boomer or millennial, whatever whatever label you want to throw on that age group, there's going to be very different behavior with this, right So, I know who you were talking to, because I was out there with you when we were talking just for the live. That's somebody that's that's looking at retirement in their face, you know, ten years from now, right, Yeah, So you know, when you're looking at that, it's a very different decision. But if you're like my kid's age when their twenties, right right, you know, it's a very very they're not thinking the same way. So so you have to kind of and also whatever financial situation they're in will also termine this. But what it will do is it'll it'll it'll come right after the class A apartments and anything that's expensive, uh, you know, as an example, because twenty you know, twenty percent down. If if if we can do this twenty percent down thing, let's say people can put that, you know, come put that money together the twenty percent down. A lot of a lot of people if they can, if they can, they can move laterally to uh not pay rent, they're gonna be better off because, don't forget, you're also paying down the mortgage principle. So it's a it's like a forced retirement savings plan if you don't continue to tap it, you know, for your whole life. Yeah, but but so I'm a I ran the math on this, and you know, if if you're renting for more than a couple years, it makes sense. Well when you also have to think too, like somebody on ELI just put on YouTube. You know, if you buy a house at forty and you do a fifty year mortgage won't be paid off till you're ninety. However, you have the option to put more money down monthly. So as you know, you know, inflation, which we're expecting, makes wages go up too, because it makes the cost of everything go up. So if you have something that's fixed, if you budget into it and want to do this, it will make it easier over time as you get promotions, as you get wage increases, to pay more towards your mortgage, where if you're sitting as a renter, rents go up with inflation, Rents go up with demand, so then you're going to have an increase in rent. But I think there's a big piece here that if you guys are trying to compare this directly with let's say crypto or stocks or bonds, let's say, okay, let's just use the number of the cost for a home. Let's say it's four hundred grand. And if you have a home that's four hundred grand, your actually investment is one hundred. Don't forget that. That's a real is This is called an uh okay, And in bonds and stocks or in crypto, you're not levered. You're levered with real estate. So so you let's say you've got eighty percent leverage or seventy five or pick a number. It doesn't really matter. The point is one's levered, one's not. So you know, if you're taking a look at the stock market for you know, say four hundred thousand dollars, that's you actually have four hundred thousand in cash in the stock market, if you're going to really make the argument. And so, you know, if you've got four hundred thousand in a house, you really only have one hundred grand in there, because three hundred is not your money, it's actually the bank's money. It's a mortgage. And that's exactly the point. So so whatever return you're whatever return you're getting on your house, the appreciation, the inflation, you're getting it on the lent amount, you're getting it on the mortgage too. Whatever you call it. Whatever you want, call it inflation, call it appreciation, it doesn't really matter. But you need to you need the times at at least by three. And in other words, you know, if if if you do an unleveraged a stock play at four hundred, or you have a levered home play at one hundred, you know you have to you have to lever that up by at least three or four, just depending on your your your leverage. So, uh, all things being equal the single family home crushes crushes those other investments. It's not even close because you get to borrow. And the reason is is because the banks say, don't they don't really care to land against crypto. They don't really care to land against stocks. You've got margins and stuff like that, but nothing like real estate where there's actually a full collateral. So I think, hands down, this is going to be a big, big win for the first time home buyer. It'll be interesting though, you know, for those of you looking to buy, you you will be. It would be good for you to get in when this happens and not wait too long because anytime that you have extend loan payments and make things cheaper for people, prices are going to go up, you know, because people solve to their monthly So the person that can only afford two thousand a month, if they can do a fifty year versus a thirty, they've just increased the price of home that they can buy so over time that it's not going to necessarily take that much time. You know, you want something you want to jump into. And actually Roosevelt is the one that created the thirty year mortgage, which people thought was crazy, and that was part of his new deal, right, And so Trump is very you know, likes to compare himself to Roosevelt. In a lot of ways, Trump's new deal. And so Trump's new deal is going to be this fifty year mortgage most likely. You know, when Trump said it, I was like, Oh, he says a lot of things he doesn't do, but now came out and said they're working on it. So it's it's a real thing, and you guys really need to wrap your head around it. But you also need to know if you're looking to buy a house, I personally would do it when the fifty year comes out, and I wouldn't wait too long because it is going to start moving houses increase. You're right, and I'll tell you something, guys. You know, for those of you, I know, there's gonna be people on both sides of the fence here, which is totally awesome. I love that kind of open discussion. But you got to look at the facts. The facts are the average age of a first time home buyer is over forty years old. Now. It just went over forty recently. I think it's forty one, and not long ago it's twenty eight. So it's gone. Think about that, Okay, I just want that to sink in. Like when I when I was buying a home, the average home the guy you know, like like guys would get out of college, you know, and we a lot of my friends were buying houses, you know, three four or five years later. Okay, and that's gone. Why is that gone? For all the reasons we just talked about, And then you know, why is that? Well, what happened was after the GFC, which I was in the middle of two thousand and five, six, seven, eight nine, there wasn't a lot of new construction happening, and we had population growth, and so we had a massive non supply of new housing. Yet demand demand are people that you know, people still were being born and people were still graduating, and so the economy moved on. The population growth can continue now, albeit its slower. I that is true, but we went through over a ten year period of not adding very much, and so today we're sitting at depending on the report, anywhere from four to seven million houses short that's a fact. So you've got the average age over forty, you've got a four to seven million housing shortage. Those are facts, and you've got the average price at four hundred and fifteen thousand, and so this is going to really move the needle. The issue we're still going to have is that housing supply issue. So what Dnaiel said is right. What's going to happen is going to unlock a bunch of equity, which is not necessarily bad. That'll help GDP and they'll help, you know, money flowing through the economy. It will help brokers, will help, title companies will help mortgage companies will help all that stuff. Nothing wrong with that. But it's also going to create a bubble. So if the minute it's passed well in a bubble. That you know, when we say bubble, it doesn't mean the bubble is going to pop. It just means it's a new limit. You know, like college has went up because you can get student finance loans. Yes, you know, prices of houses went up when they introduced the thirty year mortgage. Prices houses will go up when they if they introduce a fifty year mortgage. People and you know, Eli asked on here, you know, but people typically only stay in their house twelve years, so is that really that beneficial? And the truth is is people just solved to their monthly. I mean I work with people on a daily basis. Investors solved to their monthly. People solved to their monthly. Everybody solves to their monthly. So very few people solved to the total amount they're going to be paying after thirty or fifty years. But Eli's right, Eli is right. You know what's going to happen is let's say, let's say we use your example of twelve years. What mean that means is that you'll just have less equity, that's all. That's all. You're going to pay down less at a slower rate. But one of the big wild cards that everybody's you know, both sides of the aisle is inflation. Right, where's inflation headed? If you guys believe, and the Fed's already saying that their target is too and right now there are three okay, so let's just let's split the baby and say it's two and a half. So two and a half percent over twelve years is what it's over twenty five percent, it's almost thirty percent, right, So so if you buy a four hundred thousand dollars home today, you know thirty percent is one hundred and twenty grand. So you know that's you doing nothing. So you know, so again, if you guys are trying to get ahead, which I want everybody to get ahead, you're not going to get ahead as a renter, even though I have ten thousand units and I have ten thousand renters. You know, the system is supposed to be where the person first goes into a house, builds credit, buys an affordable home, and moves on. You know, my my, my demographic for my for my age group is supposed to be young, and it's not supposed to be by force. It's not supposed to because they can't, you know, I mean, I know there's a whole psychology there, in the whole road. We can go down there for hours. But the point is this is good. This is good. This is going to get people in and if inflation does its thing. Using that exact same example, you lie, regardless of rate paydown, regardless of mortgage paidout. I mean, you know, you're looking at over one hundred thousand dollars increase just sitting in that home in one year. That's a significant amount of money. That's ten grand a year that somebody is moving ahead instead of behind, based on inflation, based on the two to three percent. So uh, you know this is this is the ability for the common person to get into a hard asset and let and you know, you know, let the government do their thing. You know, they're going to do it anyway, and so just be on the right side of history, right, and if if we if we, if we see massive inflation, then everybody's a winner. Yeah, I mean I keep saying, like, if you want to buy a house, I would do it before May, before Trump Blover's rates. And now at this fifty year term, you know you are going to see the most. Like imagine if you get both. Yeah, I mean, imagine if you get both. What'll be interesting is is to see whether or not I sure hope he doesn't let the big institutional groups you know, jump onto this, right. It'll be interesting though, like can you refinance into a fifty year? Right? Who knows? Can you can you can an investor use a fifty year or we don't know. Is it just for first time home buyers? Is it going to be for everybody? Like we don't really know. And that's that's actually the interesting part around the fifty years. We don't know who it's for or if it's like a thirty year where it's for everybody. If we want to move away from a retornation. I'm telling you guys like this is this is a good move. Speaking from a landlord standpoint, it's a good move. It's going to completely start competing against apartments foreshore and rentals foreshore, right because you can't lower a payment by a few hundred dollars and not expect it to have the person that's renting to have more options. Because they will have more options, they may not have the down payment, and that's typically the obstacle. Yeah, and that's a big obstacle for a lot of people. But you know, we have to look at the state of the housing market, right, Like we had mentioned, the average home buyer now is forty years old. It's went up, you know, it was twenty eight and even a year ago I think was thirty eight and now it's forty. And so we have that. But then the other thing that we have is a frozen housing market. And part of this fifty year is trying to get this housing market moving. So we haven't had this slow of a housing market since the nineties. Yeah, we said twenty eight out of the last thousand homes right out of every thousand homes change hands this year. That's not good, guys. January to September nop twenty eight out of one thousand. That just means that there's trap equity hasn't been that way since the ninety. And the thing is is it's not These aren't foreclosures. So there's a difference between you know, you have sellers that have a number that they are refusing to sell below and they're just delisting and staying in their homes, and then you have buyers who can't afford to buy these homes or they don't want to pay for these homes, and so you're not nothing's crashing. It's just not moving. You know, you're not having a lot of transactions like you were having a few years ago. And part of the reason for that are these low rates that these sellers are in. In fact, eighty percent of the mortgages are on there four. Right, I mean, that's most of the issue, right, And so what Trump's doing with this fifty is it's like for a family of four to go from a five hundred thousand dollars house with a three percent mortgage to a six hundred and fifty thousand, seven hundred thousand dollars house with a six and a half percent mortgage is a huge increase in their monthly payment, and that's why they're not doing it. So if they can then move to this seven hundred thousand dollars house with a fifty year mortgage, that's not going to put him as cheap as they are now, but it's going to close that gap a little bit. Well, here's the thing, like Trump doesn't have to argue with the feed anymore as a right like like, well, she's going to, of course, but you get you know, always the one with the better plan wins, right, So you know, he's banging on them about rates, of course, and he's going to continue to do that, and Poll's out of there in May as fed chair and then but now he just he's gonna he's gonna pass this fifty year which is essentially what he's trying to do with lower rates. I think that's kind of the point. And if he gets lower rates on top of that, it's going to be even better. A whole ownership will for sure go up. Right, And right now it's at sixty five percent, it was at sixty nine percent, under Obama. For all of you or who are playing the blue and red game, it was at sixty nine percent, which started before Obama, but that's where it got. It got to sixteen nine point one percent whole ownership, which on the flip side, that means thirty one percent renter, right, and so every one point is about one point two one point three renters. So what we've had is we'd have five million people since Obama moved to the rental side of the equation, which created all this rent growth. Okay, and that's what we got. Right now, it's completely stagnant. We're at sixty five and thirty five, so we're sixty five percent home ownership thirty five percent renter. This could move the needle back the other way, you know, and and I don't know, I for one believe that there needs to be a healthiness. But you rent, rent should not be something that you have to do, right, It should not be something that you're locked in on. It should be a lifestyle choice and uh and or a way to a means to, you know, to get into something else. Because this this has long term effects on people. But make no but make no doubt about it. This fifty year is not a golden ticket to make housing affordable. It just makes it slightly more before it does. It's actually going to probably more than likely, because we have four or five six million homes under supplied. I can't imagine that we're not going to see some price increases as people start using this more as as a tool, and then pretty soon everyone will be doing it. And it's a good point. Is it going to be for investors? Is it going to be for institutions? And is it going to be limited to first time home buyers? These are all things. And is it going to be limited to cash out refis you know? That's another one? Yeah? Right, yeah, Well, and Bacchus brings up a good point. He says, sounds like it's a great time for house hacking and duplexus, and I agree with that. I mean, you know, if you're a young personally and you can get into a fifty year mortgage and you can buy a house and have two of your friends move in with you or three of your friends and pay for that mortgage, like that is going to be a win for you all the way around. Even if you're extending that fifty years, you're still having other people pay your loans. Let's explain what house hack is. So, so it's okay you call it over you let's say buying a duplex or living in one side renting the other. So the rent on the other pace for your pace for the mortgage pays for a lot of your expenses, hopefully all of them, and so you're essentially living rent free or mortgage free, I should say, and the renter is paying for your side. That's what house hacking is. It doesn't have to be just in duplexes. But I know friends that have done it with in basements on top of garages, and you know, all kinds of there's all kinds of things, but it's a heck of a good point yep. So, and the other thing that we have to look to is like, what is going to make you know, the housing market start to move again, right, And this is one of those things. If fifty year mortgage can make it move again. The only other way that this can move is if rates go way down, which Trump is also working on, and if wages start to increase and make people be able to afford the home. Those are really the only ways. And so you know, Trump is having some resistance on these the rate issue. So now he's going for the fifty year mortgage because he has control over that. Yeah, I know this is going to be a very very interesting one. To watch, and people are gonna want it. Now. You boomer's out there saying like, oh, this is silly, who would want to finance their home for fifty years? Like, we get it. But also if you are a thirty year old watching right now, and you were a young couple and you're trying to figure out your monthly payment, you're going to appreciate this and think to yourself, well, well let's do the fifty year and maybe try to pay it off early over time or refinance later. But this gets us into a payment we can afford because these young couples, you know, they're looking at thirty five hundred dollars house payments in our area at least for a starter home, and that's very expensive. So if you can get that down six or seven hundred dollars for them, that is a game changer. Yeah, if you're a boomer and you're in a home, then you're looking at it through roast colored glasses. Here, you have a little you're a little bias, right, because that's not what you did when you were young. But you know, if you really strip it down and take a look at why is the first time home buyer over forty years old? Right when when you were young it was in the twenties. Okay, so things have moved h and you just haven't seen it. So you know, this is actually good. You know, it's it's it's going to go straight straight ahead to head against the apartment market and the rental market for sure if it passes. But that's okay, Uh, it's good. It's good. It's it's good. We need people to get into hard assets and not in thirty forty years when you are a boomer or whatever your whatever your label's going to be, then you know, are you going to be a renter at fifty sixty years old? That's the issue in the end, and the reality is is that we don't want that. There's been a couple of things here. Ryan really sums us up well. He said, if history repeats itself on a fifty year mortgage, your house will probably be worth more three to five times what it's currently selling for. So you'd make money on the appreciation at least, and That's the thing is if you wait and you let other people take advantage of the fifty year, and then home prices go up. Well now, I mean it's almost like when the thirty year was created, a lot of people probably still did the fifteen, but then over time almost everybody does the thirty. Well, that's what's going to be the fifty. Everyone's going to do the fifty. So prices are going to be based on the fifty. And so you don't want to wait to get into it because then you know, prices are going to go up over time, and if you don't get into it, then you miss out on all that appreciation that you're going to get from this. And us investors that have property, we're going to get that same appreciation from the stuff we already own, you know, irregardless if we're included in the fifty year or not. And now let's break that down real quick before how can he come up with that? And I'll tell you how. Right now, we're at three percent inflation if now, of course it's impossible to do this correctly over fifty years, but if you take three percent at fifty years, that's one hundred and fifty percent that's it. That's three times right, that's what you say, And he's not wrong. You know, we don't know what inflation is going to be over the fifty year period, and you're probably not going to hold it that long. And there's all these kinds of things that you're going to say to make yourself right. But the end of the day, you're you're also getting the inflation or appreciation what do you call it, on the lent amount on the mortgage amount s. Don't forget that you're you're borrowing seventy five or eighty percent and you're getting that. You're getting appreciation off of that too. And Eli said, this is interesting. If you're over fifty, will a lender give you a fifty I don't know. I don't because that is interesting because I know in other countries they have longer loan terms and they're not fixed, but there are age caps on those loan terms because of. That, this is a horneousness for the estate planners and the people without wills and all that kind of stuff. Right. Yeah, yeah, that's a good, really good point. Yeah, So it's going to be interesting. So we will keep you guys posted as more information comes out. On this. I think there's a lot of questions still, I do think they're going to do it. It sounds like they're full steam ahead on this, and I don't know why either side of the aisle would vote against it, because it does make housing more affordable. So I do out it'll be a tough one for them to argue. Yeah, it's like, you know, all they're doing is spreading the spreading your payment over a longer term. It's the same thing the auto manufacturers did years ago. You just barely noticed it when it went from forty eight to sixty and sixty to seventy two and seventy two to eighty four. And people want it. I'm telling you. I know it sounds hard to believe, but like you break up a good point with the car loans, Like if you told people, hey, we're getting rid of all you know, long term car loans you can only do thirty six months now, people are going to be upset. Of course, you know they're going to really earn paymous with double. You know, no, no, no, no, we're helping you because you're not going to pay as much interest on the whole car. They don't care, or they don't want, then they can't afford as nice as a car, or they can't afford a car at all, and then they're upset. Right, so they want the longer terms. That's what people want. You don't have to do it, but it's what people want. So on this fifty year loan, there's going to be a lot of demand for the fifty year loan. And you don't have to do it, but there's going to be demand for it. Yeah, trust me, and then you know without a doubt. And before we jump off to the next topic, we should chat about our monetary medals our sponsors. 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Okay, so let's talk about planning for next year. What does all this mean because the fans meeting one more time. So what are you saying in the market. Well, you know, traditionally people to list homes towards the end of the year. It's a terrible time to list a home. Imagine listening to home right now, right in the holidays or. You tell me they're delisting right, Well, a lot of people are. But but the people that let's start talking about people that are listing right now, if they're listening towards the end of the year, they are much more motivated sellers because why wouldn't they wait till January? Right? So, so those in homes that are still sitting right now, are a lot of them are going to be more motivated as well, because the market really slows down. So if you are a buyer, end of the year is a great time to make some good deals happen. At least keep watching watch it, yeah. Watch and see. But if you are a seller, you know, we have a home for sale right now, and we're actually delisting it towards the end of the year, and then we're going to relist it in January because it pops up new on Zilla. I think Q one is gonna you guys are going to see a lot of new listings hit the market right on the commercial side too, right, like we're having the kind of the same, very different scenario where people are running out of cash and the gps are a mess and you know there's no equity left and all that with a whole different podcast or live. But the point is is, I think you're going to you're going to see a real jack in the listings, certainly January February of next year. Yeah, absolutely. And you know Trump gets his guy in there or girl in May, and so you know rates, you know they're definitely going He's going to pick somebody that is going to be more aggressive with rate cuts and so and then on top of this fifty year mortgage that he's probably gonna want to have hit right around that time because he's going to want to get credit for all of it, and so of course every little thing he's gonna want to get credit for. So with that, you know, I think between like early next year is going to be a really good time too. Yeah, guys, I'm telling you get ready. You know, just plans, start looking at markets, start looking inventory. Watch watch watch watch, wait for their you know, the FED meeting in December, you know, everybody, I think we're going to see another quarter point down, which is not necessarily a bad thing. And then next year when you know, when when Trump swaps out his chair, which of course it's supposed to be disconnected, but it's not. I I think, uh, I think you were going to have this window if the if the fifty year mortgage is introduced, you know, that's going to be the year. I think that's going to be Trump's grand thing. You know, he's going to get his FED chair, He's going to release the fifty year. And then who knows about rates, rates could. Go down, and yeah, and he's going to aggressively want to push rates down and get more people into housing. So and with that though, all those things, lower rates, fifty year mortgages make prices go up. And that's why I keep telling people, you know, end of this year, early next year is a great time to buy. If you find something that you can make work. There's a leg there's going to be like the lower rates are going to help new construction, help homebuilders, help you know, the small guy you know, or you know, family business that builds, you know, a few homes here and there. That's who it's going to help. We need supply. Supply is what helps the consumer. So what we have as we have the administration lowering rates and spreading the terms, but now what we need is supply to really balance this whole thing out. Yeah, and Josh said, lower rates and a fifty year loan will create huge inflation. It's not even a question. And you know, on top of all this, you know we are expecting continued inflation. You know, uh, we havenady talked about that. Yeah, So so on top of all of this, you know, we don't expect inflation to hit two percent. Powell does not expect inflation to hit two percent right now, inflation's around three percent, and you know, things like this can make it go. And we haven't talked about the job market, so we'll save that for another day. But yeah, you know, uh, those are all factors obviously, guys on what happens with rates. And what Josh also said, when Polty pushes it, you think it's for the home buyer. Come on, yeah, just look at the last name, right, you. Know, so Pulty's a home builder, and this is going to be really good for builders, anything to get people into houses and keep the market going. But it's really good for the overall economy too. I mean, you know, realtors, lenders, home cleaners, I mean, there's so much that is dependent on houses, switching hands, title companies, handyman work. It's a huge spec of the economy. Guys. You know, you know, when money is flowing, it's good for everyone, right, Good for realtors, good for merge companies, good for title companies, good for consumers. Unlocking the equity. You know, they don't always roll it into real estate. They buy ATVs, they buy boats, they buy you know those kinds of you know RVs. This this is good when you got thirty four million dollars sitting in people's homes. You know, this is a strategy that could unlock a lot of it and could really really change the trajectory of everything in the next two years. Yeah. Absolutely, Well, thank you guys for listening, and check us out on our podcast on Thursday and we'll see you next week. See you, guys,
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