Real Estate Realities: Ken and Danille’s Story + Insights from a Futurist
Ken McElroy ShowDecember 05, 202401:03:0186.54 MB

Real Estate Realities: Ken and Danille’s Story + Insights from a Futurist

In this podcast episode, Ken and Danille McElroy share personal insights into their recent home-buying journey, navigating high construction costs and loan challenges. Danille also discusses her experience subletting a rental property to an Airbnb entrepreneur, revealing the pros, cons, and lessons learned. In the final segment, Greg Lindsay, a renowned urbanist and futurist, joins to discuss housing trends, migration patterns, and the future of urban planning.

Learn more about Greg's work at https://greglindsay.org

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Visit Ken's Bookstore: https://kenmcelroy.com/books
 
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ABOUT KEN: Ken is the author of the bestselling books The ABC’s of Real Estate Investing, The Advanced Guide to Real Estate Investing, and The ABC’s of Property Management. With over two decades of experience in real estate investing, Ken McElroy is passionate about sharing the good life by helping real estate investors grow and prosper. This podcast is a place for Ken to discuss numerous topics connected to real estate investing, including finance, budgeting, the entrepreneur mindset, and creating passive income. Ken offers a wealth of personal experiences, practical advice, success stories, and even some informative setbacks, all presented here to educate and inspire. Whether you’re a new or seasoned investor, the information and resources on this channel will set you on a path where you and your investments can thrive.
 
Ken's company: https://mccompanies.com
 
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So we're just chatting about how can wants us to be sponsored by peisor. I did not. I think we actually should be. I think that, you know, we're going to reach out to them psor Yeah, and we'll say how we like love a vaccine and we love all their medications and everything. No, anyways, no big far on this channel. So anyways, we're closing on our house today. No, the wires just came in. I know, it's pretty exciting. Ken and I we bought some land in twenty nineteen and we were going to. Build and then two acres. We bought three lots, two acres. We're going to build this house and then kaboom, well. You know, COVID happened. It took over a year to get the city going. Again, and then the city shut down. Remember I was trying to finish the plans while all the cities were closed. Oh my gosh. And and they delayed it one year. They were shut done for a year. And so then by the time we could build again, the building costs were just so high. And then the interest rates right. And interest rates we just decided let's just hold off. And I said, let's just renovate our house and see if things settle down, because we also had to push pause on our construction projects at MC right, and so everything was kind of go on a rise, you guys, know, like things were so expensive, and the guys like, well, we have to we have to get a warehouse to buy like sub zeros, like a year in advance, and we need we need to order all the cabinets a year out and and and just storm in this warehouse because nobody can get this stuff. And I'm like, oh my gosh, this just sounds like a lot more time and effort and expense. And I said, let's just take a break. Yeah. And then just randomly, you know, you were looking at some houses and we really still planned on building, just not yet. And then you found this house. That well, you know, you think it's random, Well it wasn't. It wasn't so rand you'd been looking. I had been looking so at the same time. So you got to think of, you know, whatever you're going through in real estate, think of so is everyone else. So I'm dealing with high construction costs, I'm dealing with high interest rates, I'm dealing with high land costs, I'm dealing with complexity to get anything through the city, and all those things are happening to me, which is kind of normal for you know, being in real estate. So I'm like, that must be going on everywhere, and it was, of course. So I started looking at houses that were under construction and custom homes and people that had bought lots and we're trying to do the same thing that I was doing, except there were like eighty homes being done like that in the Scottsdale and Paradise Valley, and so I started just tracking those homes, and I was looking for people that had either been through the process or were in the middle of the process, and that were frustrated right through construction, renovation or interest rates or whatever it might be, because things were shut down and things were kind of weird for a while. And lo and behold, we found a project a house yeah that we both liked. And by the way, that was no small feet because Daniel had one request the one tell. I literally had two things. I wanted a yard, and I wanted a first floor master and and h and a single level house and a single level house. And Ken had about seventy things that he wanted. It was sixty eight. But the reality was that I wanted of you. I wanted to be on the side of a mountain. I wanted it to be kind of modern study. But I did, I did, But that's what I wanted. So and so it's very very hard to find a yard on the side of a hill. And anyway, lo and behold, Daniel gave me her two requests, which I was stressed and had anxiety over. Uh and uh. Sure enough found the house and sure enough it. Has an upstairs master. But but but tell them, tell them the solution. There's an elevator. Yeah, oh yeah, that's tough. There's an elevator that I get so much panic using. So here's the best part. The house comes with an elevator to go to the master only because only the master goes up. But Danil's afraid to get in it. Well you know, actually I wasn't too afraid. But then when I was touring the property with two other agents, they both the one agent goes You get stuck in a residential elevator one time, and you'll never ride one again because he had gotten stuck in one. That's all that takes. And so anyways, it was just funny. I'm so how about if I say, if you get stuck in the kitchen, you'll never go in there again. Is that going to work? Oh my god? But yeah, So we love the house though, in all honesty, we're super excited. You know, closing the house has been a whole other thing. Long story. We'll go into that one later. Well, let's go into it now, all right. Yeah, the bank, you know, gave us a pretty hard time, you know, as they do trying to get lending. Well, first of all, you guys, most of you know, if you're not rune or a business owner, or just have a lot of money coming in from passive income like we do, they don't know what to do with you. You know, there's no paper check with somebody singing the shore on it, which of course would have been mine, that says this is how I meant, this is how much money I make every two weeks. So then we went into tax returns. I'm sure a lot of people can relate you this happened to you with some of your or did you know. When I went to buy my first condo. I mean this was before I was in real estate, but I was going to buy my first condo and it was one hundred and sixty grand, and I just say it was saving money, right, So I think I had like one hundred and thirty five grand or something like that in cash, so I had like all of it, but like maybe the last twenty five or maybe it was forty thousand I still needed. And I just went to go get a loan from the bank and I have great credit, and they were like, you know, we can't do the loan. We can't give you a forty thousand dollars loan on one hundred and sixty thousand dollars property, even though you have great credit. And the guy even told me like, if you go get a job for six months, I can get you alone all day. And I'm like, what do you mean I'm making You know, I had my bartending company at the time. I was making like pretty good money, you know, way more money than I could make getting a job somewhere. But the money wasn't the issue. It was that I hadn't had my business long enough, so I think I had only had it three years instead of five or I can't really remember all the logistics, but at the time I didn't know I could shop other loan companies, so I was going through a standard bank, which was a mistake, and so my parents luckily had a lign of credit on their house. I was able to use and then pay them back. But it was tough and I and you know, it just frustrated me. I was like, what do you mean if I get a job, I can get a loan? Like what does that even mean? And also you really won't give me a forty thousand dollars a loan, like you could sell this place and recoup that loan all day. Well, and then what happened to me is, as you guys know because we've done a whole bunch of videos on this, everything I have is in LLCs and it's protected with trusts since I have four trusts. So the bank was like, where are your assets? I go, well, they're here, and hear it here these trusts and the trusts are you know, the beneficiaries are my kids and you know the normal planning. Well, they ain't like that because they're like, well if I need a foreclose, then you know your kids will you know. It was I was like, listen, it's not my problem, like I have all these assets and you know, but okay, like most people not much is in my name, like like most business people. And that's actually that's the mystique, or I guess the problem in the bank had I should say it's not necessarily a mystique, but they had a die wrap of their head run. So it kept going through these levels of underwriting, and what would happen was we would provide something and then they would say, well, I need the operating agreements, I need this and this, and then we provide that, and then another week could go by and I'll provide the next thing. I had my accountants on board and they were sending documents and pass tax returns and all that kind of stuff. But they're complicated. I have over one hundred LLCs. Well, I think the big trump card was, you know, we were starting to get done because we have a deadline with the seller on when we need to close by and you know you just told the bank like about a week and a half or two weeks ago, because it was just more documents and more you said, you know what, I'm going to move cash into this account and just close this thing on my own, and I don't actually need you if you can't close on time. That's exactly what I I know, thanks for bringing that up, but I said, I said, I Plan A is all cash, Plan B is the bank, and I just at that point, I just said, I don't care if you deliver alone or not, but if you don't, none of you get paid. But I'm buying it either way, and then I'll just do a cash out REFI, you know, thirty days later, and I actually went down the road on that. I actually had an application process started with a bank that I I'm doing a lot of business with National Bank Arizona, and I'm already moved down the road, and so I had ANAKA, my assistant putting all that stuff together. I'm like, oh yeah, because National Bank of Arizona is like, well, we'll do it in two seconds. So we're like, okay, we'll just refinance with you. But it was hysterical because you know, as soon as you said we have the money, I already put it in escrow and we're closing with her without you. They got their asses in GEARA and they started cementing everything, and you know, because you know, usually the bank's kind of in charge, and usually that you just have to deal with them, you know, if you don't have the cash and so you kind of gave them a truck card when you moved. It all over. Most people don't have eight million dollars to wire into a bank account. Well, but it was hysterical because you were talking to your partner Ross, and remember he was telling you he. Had Ross told me, yeah, he's like, remember when we were doing Creekside and these other projects out in Tucson. I said, yeah, we had three big projects going at once. He goes, remember I was trying to buy that house in flag Staff and I said, oh, I love that house, and he said, he goes, I was, I was trying to buy a personal home as a second residence, and I had three huge projects going, which we did at the time. We were raising money on we're building, and I can't remember exactly which three, but he goes, he goes. Thirty days later, I had three of the four done in the house. The house was I didn't have done. I was able to, you basically, do over one hundred million dollars in deals, yet he wasn't able to do something that was less than a million. Yeah, on his house on his persons were closed, and we're having drinks tonight at the house with the boys. So we're excited. But it was definitely not an easy journey. But you know, get this all done. But we're happy and uh yeah that's our house update. Ye. So I wanted to update everybody on my Airbnb tenant. We know a lot. That's an interesting one, yes, a lot of you know. I sublet essentially rented long term to a guy that runs the airbnb, so he was renting my place outs. But let's talk about it before we jump right in. I do want to say why. I think that was a good strategy because picture this. Danil bought a place and she had the guy rent it for twelve months actually I think eighteen months at a really high rate and with no vacancy. So it's she basically said, here, I want X amount per month and you make whatever over that and so you were covered. You're happy, you don't have any vacancy, so you have one tenant. Now he is moving people in and out like a like a hotel room. But that's what you bought it for. So I like that strategy. If you have the opportunity to to sub lease your your your your place that you own, I guess it's not even a sub lease but just lease the place you own to somebody that does a master lease over it, and then they just make whatever they on some kind of business over the top. It's not a bad strategy. Wh why I liked it and part of the two I did it for two reasons. One, he was so excited that he literally moved his stuff in the day closed the loan. Yeah, so he's not even I didn't even have a day of vacancy, like he was trying to move it in the day before. I'm like, buddy, you can't. I don't even know own the house yet. So that was awesome. So that was like the number one thing. But the number two thing was, you know I knew so none of my other properties can I do Airbnb out of because they all have hoas that don't allow it. This particular property has an HOA, but they do allow short term rentals. So I was actually considering do I even do an Airbnb because maybe I would make money doing it right, maybe i'd make more. So what was nice is I found his listing, so it's almost like better him to do it and try it out see how he does, than me to try it and see how I do. Right, Because I figured at the end of the eighteen months, he is either killing it and then I'm just going to take it over. He's not killing it and he's gonna end his lease, or he's doing okay and he just keeps going and I just renew it. Right, Oh, I remember the strategy. I like the strategy because you're basically saying, I'm gonna let him test the market first. Yeah, and it was great, and he did a good job with the listing and everything else, so I wouldn't really be critical of him there, and I'd say overall it went well, but there are some mistakes that I'm made, and there was some pros and cons, right. And so, and by the way, let let's point out real quick, incredible location. Affordable in Scott's Stell, real close to old town. Yep, really really nice property. Yeah a n townhome. Yeah, really nice town home. But what affordable in Scottsdale means in the five six hundred thousand dollars range. Yeah, that's that's affordable right now. That's about as low as you're going to get. And so Dale bought this really nice property literally one mile from old Town, which is where everybody wants to be. Yeah. And I think the biggest mistake I made was not checking on the property in these eighteen months, right because I kind of assumed, honestly, he didn't have that many guests, because I was watching his Airbnb listing and you know he'd have three or four months, you know, not like a ton and so I, you know, I just didn't check on the property. He had a cleaner in there and everything else. So I go to check on the property and the biggest thing was there was some there was leaks on the roofs. Yep, that's right. You sent me the photos of Yeah, ye, that's getting fixed. So you're right. If you're going to lease something to somebody, it needs to be perfect. It does. And there was three leaks in the roof, and honestly, the leaks were prop My inspector probably missed the leaks. I I didn't use my normal inspector when I bought this house, and I kicked myself for that. That was a mistake number That was mistake number one. And so luckily, you know, caught them early enough that there was no like mold or damage or anything like that. But you know, I'm gonna have to get it repainted. Now I had to get the roof fixed everything else, So that's probably. Four grand thirty three hundred for the roof and then two. Yeah exactly, So it cost me four grand, although it was gonna leak either way. But if you know, if you have somebody living there and they're a good tenant, which most of them are, they're gonna let you know that the roofs leaking. Well, when people are in or out for a few days, they don't necessarily notice, they don't necessarily care. And it was hard to see, like I had to, you know, get up on a chair and see if it was just the lighting or you know, if there was a shadow on the ceiling. But that is the biggest mistake I made. And then the other thing was the backyard. Well hold on, so I well up to the front ard. So when I bought this place, I bought it from this woman in our eighties. The landscaping was beautiful in the back. In the front, she had potted plants on a drip system, like everything just looked awesome, right, and so. But I kind of just assumed you would take care of it rid by. Yeah, So anyway, sorry, So I drive up to the front and I see, like both of the potted plants are like dead like straw, you know, and there's like dirt everywhere where someone kicked it over on the patio. So I swept all that up. Then I go to the back and the backyard okay, when I moved in, these little bushes were probably three feet high, you know, three feet high bushes. It is like a jungle back there. I mean you can't even see the grill because these bushes just like grew around the grill. So that's not great. So you also got to wonder why was the airbnb guy not successful? Well, yeah, so this is a point like again, by the way, that's not your issue, right, But the fact is people probably went to that thing and they're like, what is going on? Yeah, because he's supposed to deliver a good product. Well right, And so the backyard was kind of a mess and it's going to need landscape for sure, and the tenant is responsible for the landscaping. And I do have to give him credit for taking good care of the interior, and really it's more on his property manager than him, but they kind of maintained the interior and didn't you know, maintain the exterior. And then you know, since there is bushes growing around the grill with flowers and everything else, it's definitely a fire hazard. So I should have been kind of checking on that property and you know, intervening. So that was a big lesson for me there. You know, real estate is a business. Yeah, it's a business, and this is what happens with a lot of people. So this lesson is something that a lot of people, you know, they think a lot of times real estate is like a stock, right, And that's kind of how you treated it a little bit. Is you bought it and said it's fine and you and you didn't really check even though you did a master release to this guy, and you know he should have obviously maintained it, but he didn't, and so you should have gone. You should have written him on an email saying listen, I need you to claim up the backyard. I need you to do this. I need to do that. You still own the property. And also I know you got some dirty looks when you drove over there with the other neighbors. Well that's another thing. The neighbors never like airbnbs, and we didn't have any issues, you know, to my knowledge, at the Airbnb because I am the contact with the city of Scottsdale, so I would have known. But the neighbors don't love it, right. So it was so funny because my dad and I were over there, he was in town, and we're looking, we're checking out the roof and everything, and you know, I said hi to the neighbors on the right and they just were like hi, and they just kind of looked at me and didn't smile. Went back inside, and they probably think I'm an Airbnb tenant, you know, an air guest or whatever, because they're used to people coming in and out. Oh you look like one. Yeah, and so anyways, uh so, you know, the neighbors don't love it. So that's another con you know. I it's funny this this hoa is so small. It's just like a road, right, there's probably I don't know twenty people in the hoa. Well, didn't you already fight with them on parking? I did. But I also was looking at the notes from the last meeting and they, you know, one of them was like I had to do with airbnbs in the rest in the community and how they were unhappy with it, and you know, and the only Airbnb is me. Oh, yeah, so they don't love it. I mean, so you're making headlines. Yeah, making headlines. I don't even go to the meetings. And it was funny because I was just glancing over the notes to. Let me just sum up. You're making headlines. You don't go to the meetings, you don't go to the property. I know, right, I was just I know, right, totally my fault. Like it's not the same as having a regular tenant, and I kind of treated it that way. It's funny because I know you have several other properties and I know they're probably well maintained and you're in constant communication with your tenants. So right, just kind of a point is guys like just remember that even somebody that's experienced like Daniel, sometimes you know, makes mistakes. Yeah, you know, I my tenants, if anything, they're like super mindful about what's happening, right, and so you have to tell them, hey, we're not going to fix this versus you know, letting a roof leak or something like that. And something else that's a little weird is when you have somebody in your airbnb, they're like hotel guests, so you know, the Airbnb person running it doesn't really want your contractors in there. So sometimes we would schedule contractors, you know, if there was a drip in the sink or something and then a last minute booking would happen, and he wouldn't want the contractor to come over anymore because it interferes with the guests. Yeah, and so you know, it was kind of I did put in the lease that was good on my part that any immediate repairs were his responsibility because I'm not running a hotel. So like, if a toilet go, it's clogged, you need to go fix it right away. It's if you want to fixed like that night, because you have quote unquote hotel guests. So here's the real question. Would you do it again? Ah, yes, I would do it again. What would you do differently? I would check on the property, obviously I would, and I did do this, so I wouldn't do this differently, but I would make sure that I was charging a premium rate. There's no way that guy's getting repeat guests, but the condition of the place. Yeah, I think that's kind of normal if you're having someone that's subletting your property but. His, but he makes more money. If it's if it's higher occupacy. So that's why I don't understand if I was doing well. He had all really good reviews. All his reviews were five stars except one. I mean he had you know, cause I'm seeing most of you don't never need to in the backyard. Yeah, I think I think we wouldn't necessarily go in the backyard. Would be my guess who is that who doesn't open the door good to backyard? Well, I don't know. I mean, even when I was showing the place, some people like it overgrown like that, but but it is. It is weird to show the place. So now that I'm showing it because I'm trying to rent it to a non Airbnb person, you know, it's weird to show like the Master with bunk beds in it. You know, it doesn't show as well as it would if it was like nicely furnished and nicely done. I have friends that have Masters with bunk beds. Hey, well, well they like it well, and they would I would say there were some prose to it too. It wasn't all bad. In fact, in fact, I would you know, I consider doing it again for the right person. And I do think he was the right person. It was my fault for not checking on the property. He didn't really It wasn't like it was in massive disarray. I've had more damage from just regular tenants. And the truth is it wasn't used very hard. Now he he didn't have it booked that often. But the interior it was just minor damages. It wasn't anything like and it was kept clean. He never would bother me because anything that was going to be an issue for his tenant, he would have someone come out, you know, like one time the lock win open, so he had to get a locksmith out that night because people were waiting outside. I think I only sent a handyman over there twice in a year and a half. So the pros are he paid on time, you had no vacancy, Yeah, and that was all good, yeap. You know. The cons is that he didn't maintain the place like you probably should have. Yeut, And eighteen months later you got to break it down and rent it long term. Yeah, I am going to. And there's some things to note that I think are really important that if you're going to do this, whether it's an airbnb for yourself or you're going to sublet it. You know, they try to tell you that, oh, you have the Airbnb insurance and it covers everything. It doesn't. And I used to be an insurance so I was really careful about this. You need additional insurance that covers Airbnb, and it's not cheap, but you need to have it because that's what you're going to use for your liability. That's what you're going to use for everything else. Because if you just rely on the sub letter's fine, relying on Airbnb's insurance, he doesn't care. They don't care. But for you, you're the property owner, so you need to care. That could be a really big deal. I so so let's just explain what you mean by that. So you're renting to you know, call it mister Airbnb. Yeah, and he's renting to somebody else. And so if somebody else has a fire in there, now they're not your tenant, correct, And that's the issue. And there's a break between who you're renting, so you would have to go after him, then he would have to go after them, and so that's the problem on the insurance side. So I wanted to just clear that up. And also with liability, like if somebody falls in there, like my insurance is going to say that person doesn't live there, you know. So that's why you have to make sure you have insurance. It's okay with subletting, and so you know you can find them, you know, you just have to look. But don't ever just take the word of like, oh, Airbnb will cover that. That's like saying like Uber is going to cover something like there's no contact there. They're not gonna They might cover small things, but have a big claim and you can't even deal with them because you're not working with them. The other person is The other thing I did that I thought was really smart is and the only reason I did this is because he rented it on day one but I gave him an option to cancel with a sixty day notice. I don't normally cancel the lease at any time of the eighteen months, and I don't normally do that. But the reason I did it is I didn't want him just throwing anybody in there to make money if it's not going well for him. Yeah, and I think it also built some trust. And you know, he was a good tenant, paid out time and did most of the stuff to keep it rented. But the end of the day, I would say, based on what you were telling me, his income did not cover his expense. To you, I think it did, but I think barely. Like I don't think he lost money because there were certain months where he was rented more than others, and he did find out he found a long term tenant for the summer months in Phoenix. He found a lady to rent for two and a half months over the summer to cover his expenses, not for him to make any money. So I think he probably broke even or maybe was a little positive, but it wasn't worth all the work of checking people in and out and making sure cleaners came and everything else. And that's why, you know, moving forward, I want to get a long term tenant in there. Plus it is less stress, you know, every time because I would follow his Airbnb and every time somebody would be booking, you know, I always think, like who is this person? And am I going to get a call? Because you just don't know and you never know, right, And so now with a long term tenant, you know, you know, you kind of know who they are, you know what to expect, you kind of have a better communication because that's the other thing with him, He was very disconnected from the property. So I usually have really good relationships with my tenants. They know me, they know, they know how I am, I know how they are. With him, he was more disconnected because he was running a bunch of these He didn't really care about who I was. He didn't really need me most of the time. He just really needed the unit to rent because it was his business. So we didn't have that same relationship I have with my other tenants, where you know, I kind of know what's going on in their lives. I know they're having a baby. I know that's why they're moving. I know they just got a new job. I know that's why they're moving. And I'm not like super close with my tenants, but I have a gauge on them. Were him, I mean, so I would text him and he would text me back five days later. So let me ask you a question. You have tenants that you know and they're renting from you long term. You know some of them have been with you years now, and you have this Airbnb. You could have done either, So looking back, what would be your permanent decision. I would have done it again the airbnb. Okay, even with the roof issue because he rented it day one, middle of July, which is super beginning of July, super hard to rent at that time in Phoenix, and he paid a premium amount for it. So if that place would have been vacant one month, I would have been out thirty thousand dollars. So it really and I would have been out one month for sure. So and the carpet need to replace. He have me do any of that. I have to do it now. So at the end of the day, because of the specific situation, I would do it again, but I'm not trying to do it again. Yeah that's proper. Well we kicked the cap backs down the road and you had no vacancy. Yeah, yeah, that's fair. Okay. So today in the show we have Greg Lindsay who's a futurist. Yeah. Well, we had him speak at our company and he was a huge hit. So every year we do an annual employee event. We get all the top people in one room and you know, we bring in some speakers, and we do some award we do some personal development and we do all this stuff. And he was one of the guys that talked about real estate, you know, and he dug into our company and said, this is where multi family housing is going, this is where office buildings are going, this is what's going on with the economy. And it was pretty cool. And we also sprinkled some AI in there, because that was part of the part of the discussion. You know, what is AI going to do with real estate? How's that going to change it from the way you look, from the way you find, from the way you fund, all that kind of stuff. So I very much enjoyed this interview. Yeah, it was really interesting. You know, things of the future are going to be very different than now, and he really starts to go into that. So hope you guys enjoy tears. So welcome, Greg Lindsay. Nice to see you. A pleasure to be here. Ken. Yeah, we had you speak to our group, and I got to tell you everybody was completely blown away with your data. You got an impressive background. I guess people a lot of people call you a futurist. Well, yeah, I used to be a journalist, but then I stopped having to quote three experts and to start saying things myself. So it's a lot more liberating that way. Yeah. Well, and one thing I liked about You know, I had to laugh because you sent over one hundred and sixty page power point so Ken and I remember with like, oh wow, this is a lot more information than we normally get. So it was really fun because we had to dig through it all. But one thing that I did notice is, you know, we've had a drop off in remote work since the pandemic. You know, probably about a year two years ago it started to trend down, but over the last year it's kind of flatline, meaning that too, you know, the capacity it is now hybrid work is here to stay. And so how do you think that that is reshaping the real estate markets? Yeah, well, I will note I just saw the stat came out, you know, after Amazon drew its line in the sand saying get back in the office. We've seen other orgs trying to follow a suit that actually the share of remote work has actually gone up since then, so you know, the workers are equally throwing their own lines in the sand. I mean, we already see obviously the long term effects when it comes to office and like that pain has not yet worked its way out survive until twenty five. We're almost there, and I hear heaven in twenty seven. You know, we'll see but but you know, obviously it's going to lead to big changes in where people live, what cities they live in, what workspaces they do choose to have. So we know we've all all heard by now the rise of zoom towns. We've seen the donut effect where you see decline in both residential and office prices in urban cores and then out in the peripheries. So those all up here to be things. That's that they're here to stay. And another wrinkle in that, by the way, is you know, the automous vehicle which, as we're taping this like WAYMOS continuing to ramp up in San Francisco, in Phoenix, expanding its coverage area. You know, I worked on futurist projects a decade ago. Arguably that would do remote work's doing now where people could live two or three hours outside of big metros and commute in once or twice a week for those kinds of meetings. So I think that twenty five to thirty percent of remote work is pretty much locked in. And so what happens there then is really you know, you know, do we see continue growth in these sort of secondary and third third tier urban markets. Do we see you know, resurgence in co working and shared work spaces where people don't want to work in their in their bedrooms, but they do actually want to get somewhere locally in that And yeah, then do we see a sort of permanent decline with a company tax new declines in those big urban cores and that's still shaking its way out. Maybe maybe it's Heaven and twenty seven or maybe it's something else. Yeah, and I don't think that you know, the co working spaces over the pandemic ever really got You know, no one knew what they were doing, right, Like, no one knew when they were getting called back to the office. No one knew if this was going to be for six months, a year, two years, So they weren't really thinking, am I going to have to work out of my bedroom permanently? So I kind of feel like that's why the co working spaces didn't really catch on, because everyone was just waiting. But to your point, if it ends up being like, Okay, this is what you're doing. You're working from home three days a week, or you're working from home full time, then I think that people will look and say, hey, do I want to work from my bedroom or do I want to go somewhere and have some you know, office, an office type feel. Obviously, office buildings are kind of a big question mark for lots of reasons. One are the debt maturity and the cap rates. Of course, it went up and so the values are way down. So that's one thing. But the other one, of course is you know, most of the employment is is kind of downtown and and that's where the tax base is, and there's a lot of money down there, I don't, you know. And they're also super high paid jobs. So you know, now we're seeing that in Portland and Seattle and San Francisco and even in Phoenix, and you know, of course, uh in a lot of the other areas that you're used to. So I don't know. And I also don't see another use for those office buildings personally. And I've looked, and so what do you see with the downtown cores Because I know in that presentation you did, you're tracking like cell phone data and all the stuff that goes on like a kind of communitating out of town, and it doesn't to me look like I think the downtowns are really going to take a shot in the shot in the eye here, I don't see them coming back. If ever, well, I think you're a little pessimistic there. I think you know, certainly any sort of monocultural downtown, any you know, central business district as we call it, and if we were in Europe, yeah, if you've got nothing going on after five o'clock at night, that I totally agree. And I think this is why New York has come back much stronger than other areas, is because New Yorkers want to go out and like the nightlife there is resurgent and there's actually you know, there's foot. Traffic, there's eyes on the street. It's doing a lot better than say San Francisco, which mean the pain there will continue, but I think it is I think you're right there to various degrees here, particularly in the sense of, you know, we saw that before the pandemic. This is a crazy stat to me that you know that ninety percent of what Brookings called innovation job so tech and high paying healthcare and some other categories. We're in nineteen counties in the United States, the cores of Seattle and San Francisco, like you said, So that's a little overconcentrated. Now we have fed data showing the job growth is happening outside of. That, so I think there's a necessary rebalancing. Perhaps I'm an urbanist, but you know, I don't think America was well served by just sucking all the wealth into the country and do a handful of of urban cores. But you know, I also disagree with your sort of the so called urban doom loop scenario as well too, that there's gonna be these declients. Certainly there's gonna be pain. I don't think this would be as much as we originally fear what comes to tax bass. I mean, all I can do is believe the comptroller of New York and elsewhere, and they say that, like the hit is manageable there. But yeah, I think the largest point is that we do not know what to do with those buildings. And I would also point out that the even deader are a lot of the suburban office campuses. I mean, I grew up in the Chicagoland suburbs. I mean we're the king of dead suburban office parks out there in places like Hoffman Estates, et cetera. And I've seen I know developers who are like taking just abandon at and t campuses. There's enough of them that you could turn them into a branded form of mixed use. So there's a lot of bix use development to be done. But when it comes to skyscrapers, Yeah, this dream that we had a couple of years ago that we're gonna like turn them into housing is so much harder than it originally looks. Depending on the floor plants, et cetera. It'll be interesting to see what the city is like Chicago and Boston and New York. Mayor Adams and others of. The city of the s will actually be able to subsidize developers and to turn them into housing. It won't be enough. It won't be a critical mass of that. And so yeah, that could be a sil bullet if someone figures out how to do some for conversion. No, but I was gonna say, I get New York, I get Boston, I do I get Chicago. I get that because they've been they're quite old, right, those cities have been through kind of the highs and lows. But when you start to look at newer cities, like let's say just Phoenix or you know, there is no real meaningful that's that you would not want to move down there because you know they don't have that other piece. You start to look at some of these other called fragmented areas, they don't have that other piece. New York always has had that kind of fallback, you know, with the sports and the stadiums and the and the light rail and they can pour out into the bars and restaurants and things like that. I do completely agree with you, But you start to look at some of these other more topical spots, even Portland, which is I'm from Seattle, uh and I used to live in Portland, and you know, I don't know, you know, does that make sense? No? Absolutely, I mean yeah, like you said, anything small cultural is in very bad shape. And yeah, in the case of PIX, like those buildings, you know, ultimately it just may be demolished. There's there's an asset owner I forget his name off the top of my head here in Montreal who you know, was quoted very happily in BusinessWeek saying that, like you know that that office prices have come down solow and are so written down at this point that you know they're not worth the land value. And so yeah, it just foresees doing mass demolitions of that, which from a you know, embodied carbon standpoint, is crazy, but it might absolutely be necessary. It's actually going to be more easy and effective to do that and build. From scratch and its trays you some of these conversion ideas. So in that case it raises questions like what you know, then, what should those new mixed use districts in downtown Phoenix look like? I mean think I mentioned in my talk cul de Sac, which I think is one of the most watched urban projects in America over in Tempe. You know, can you can you carve out you know, a mixed use, multi family residential area that that you know has more walkability that you know as less parking, et cetera. We could talk about these various models, but yeah, I mean, you know, if you've got empty offices at some point, you know, either either either it's. Going to be demolished or we will find a. Version of what happened in like New York and Soho in the seventies, where artists and squatters will break in and somehow rehabilitate them back to something. Although I don't I don't see that. Hey, can we jump into one of the things that you did or which I love where these migration patterns. You know, I completely agree with what you said, and this is something that we really follow, Like you don't you wanna you want to you want to be in spots that people are headed and uh, and maps like this are super helpful because it kind of tells if somebody moves from Phoenix, let's say, to Tucson, that's that's helpful to know. If they move from Seattle to la or Seattle to Austin, that's helpful to know. And so let's talk about the migration because there's one. There's a couple of things. The pandemic really changed that, work from home really changed that. Politics have really changed that, as you know, with safety and the the funding of the police and all that kind of stuff and who knows world that's heading. But the point is that things are really different now and people are people are kind of going where they want to go. And I think they've kind of woken up because now, as they should, they're going to be where they want to be. And so can you talk a little bit about what you see there? Yeah, well, I mean for starters, I mean that pattern there out of you know, coastal you know, gateway metros, the northeast and west into the sun Belt or the Smile or wherever we're calling it. Yeah, I mean that's a pattern that also goes back a very long time. Ed Glazer, the Harvard Economist, notes that like, if you want one variable to identify like the fastest grolling cities in America and the post war era, it's like the average temperature in January, so people like warm winters and hence Florida. But you know, yeah, as you said more recently, the pandemic turbo charged that, and I think it was it was partly the pandemic in the sense of, yeah, definitely choose your adventure, which comes to how you want to navigate a virus that could manifest is. Zero symptoms or deadly and no one knew what to do. But also, of course, you know, yeah, remote work put in place there, like now you don't need to pay New York City rents? Why why put up with it? Then? So you saw a lot of people vote, you know, literally vote depending on where they moved as well, but also vote with their with their checkbooks in terms of like where they can actually get a housing affordability because the pandemic also showed the complete failure of California and Massachusetts, New York, et cetera there to actually build housing that people could afford. So it shouldn't be any surprise that people have moved to places that are actually building housing. But you know, to me, it's interesting there is that, you know, the big question that hangs over this is is you know, number one, those once affordable metros have gotten less affordable. Austin is a bit of a cautionary tale. We saw, you know, far better than eye, the huge boom there in multi family construction that happened during the pandemic years has subsided. We're now seeing a big decline. So it'll be curious the you know, the decline in rent growth over the last few years and those big Texas metros like that's about to reverse. So is there another frontier of affordability? We saw places like Spokane and these other sort of third tier in tertiary cities they also became unaffordable. So you know, I guess my number one, the only long term solution is to build housing, and the metros that build housing will be successful perioded. And then two, the other one we talk abouit about AI here. I think is interesting because AI is obviously proving to be incredibly powerful tool in this respect. Number One, no one's. Moving from from New York to Atlanta, like huge Metro to Huge Metro. They're moving from specific neighborhoods they feel at home in, and like that's created a lot of competition for Brooklyners who want to move to Metro Atlanta to DM to certain places near. Like you know, Pond City Market, et cetera. So you know, we've seen the rise of startups like here in Montreal as one called vocal Logic that will map all the characteristics of a block or a neighborhood and help you find ideal locations elsewhere. So I think it's interesting that there's like this archipelago of communities and really smart investors are figuring out where those really micro level migration flows. And so how do you think AI can help with building housing? Because that is going to be the key component between that and zoning, the key component to all of this. So you know, when it comes to how it can help with housing, Like I'm you know, endlessly fascinated by the Startups Center. You're trying to use robots, robotic bricklaying, prefab assembly, three D printed housing like, lots of efforts here to figure out how to bring down some of those labor costs, particularly given the wage growth the last few years. So they I hear a lot about three D printing, you know, for houses, they're going to three D print homes. Where are I mean, to me, more of the problem than building is the land right in my opinion. And then secondly it's because they three D printed house, you still have to get the electric and the plumbing and all this stuff hooked up, so you basically get a shell, you know. But we're we're do you see that really impacting home prices in the next ten years or no. It's hot. And the stuff that's been done by a startup I believe it's called Icon. They're the ones who are really shopping around this portable three D printer for this and they've built you know, some housing subdivisions. But you know, the stuff that they they that they built so far is either done as single homes for you know, families in Mexico and also pitched a sort of disaster relief, or it's luxury subdivisions. You know, it's done as the modern version of like Eichler's in California and other sort of prefab subdivision. So you know, it doesn't solve anything on its own. You're absolutely right. It's still the land, it's still the permitting, it's still all the sort of you know, impediments to that kind of thing. And then once you've got that in place, I mean yeah, I mean wood frame construction and labor is still i think a minor piece of the costs compared to the land. So I had a question, how strongly do you feel that supply of people or housing kind of drive pricing, you know, because this is something that we follow a lot like for example, if you take a look at when people leave an area like let's say downtown Portland, you know, of course you're going to have some price issues, but then wherever they go they create them on the opposite side of that, right, So, and then you have the supply of that, let's say the housing, which is hidden right now. You know, but those all started a couple of years ago when interest rates were low, and so we're starting to see that. You know, my friend calls it to pick through the python, right, it's moving through. But then after that it drops off again. So based on you know, I know, you follow a lot of this, where do you use affordability is settling in right now, and rents certainly are flat and they're really bad in areas like Austin that you know, where everybody kind of was ahead of the curve on that. And the only thing that's happening with Austin is that we're just seeing a lot of supply and they're making its way through. But then it's a drop off, just like everyone else. So if you can survive, you're good. But if you can't, you're done. And so when this all settles out, let's call it, you know, uh, twenty seven, twenty twenty seven heaven or whatever you want to call it. I actually think that we'll be fully absorbed in twenty six. But you know, then what, like what what's your crystal ball? See that's a great question. If it was that crystal, I'd have a fun But I don't, you know, what comes out of meat is that you're right, like obviously, you know, there's lots of affordable housing in Detroit and Cleveland and plenty of russ Melt metros that you know, like we can get into this, I would argue, is like there's worth reinvesting in, particularly given in growth pressures in the United States. But yeah, like obviously, you know Austin Is is about to suffer that Python coming out the other side, and you know, yeah, we'll see these ongoing permutations. I mean, the short answer is is that we simply, you don't have enough housing in the United States. We need to build all forms of it. And we need to build it in the areas where economic geography dictates that are growing because like again like yeah, the you know, the only thing worse than non affordable housing in a fastbord metro is very affordable housing in a metro that has no jobs and is losing residents. You can find lots of fort whiles. And here I've worked on projects try to figure out how to you know, this is during the Detroit bankruptcy days about you know, how do we bring in migrants and things like this, And you know, now obviously we're at a very different time. I mean, say, by the way, there is a whole other interesting wrinkle here. President Trump, whence he's in office, does carry out is deportation planet the scale he wants that's going to have profound effects on housing. I've only read what other economists have put together on this, but yeah, the longform version of it is, like, you know, the economic geography of America is off right now. There's a lot of people who've moved into the sunbelt metros that we're continued to build housing. They've driven up the rents there, particularly in what I would argue is the walkable, high amenity neighborhoods where they really wanted to move. And if that housing growths can't keep up with that, then we continue as effects. And you know, I know Dallas for worth decently well here and like you know, the ongoing sprawl to the horizon of the Oklahoma border will continue. So you know, how do we how do we stop that number one? Because that carries of course, its own infrastructure costs the long run, just carries on that scheme. And then number two, yeah, like how do you bring down you know, rents and prices affordably accordingly so that young people can own homes because you know, right now that's I think the average I think the new average age of a homeowner in the United States is fifty six, not a first time one, but in transaction. I mean, I think it says everything. To own a house, you have to already own a house and you know, and so therefore, you know, yeah. Right, nobody's buying their first home at fifty six on a thirty year mortgage. And Greg, I am very aligned with you on wanting to you know, I did a whole bunch of stuff in Portland back in the day. The urban Growth Boundary, I'm super I'm very familiar with it, and you know everything on the inside that they had, the Portland Development Commission. You know, we worked with them and there was an affordability component about that and it works, if you know. But the problem is you have to have the cooperation from the city Council and the city and the county and the state and in order to allow people to come in and do those kinds of things, because builders want to build and that's how they put food on their table. And if they just knew the rules, and if there wasn't all this nimby, you know, the no in my backyard people you know there, we would be able to deliver. But right now, the land prices, the impact fees, the infrastructure, the plugging into the sewer water and then all the red tape to be able to actually do something, it all has to make its way to the consumer. Fortunately. But you know, I completely agree. If I could, I would do every project I could as walked. Yeah. Absolutely. Also, I mean, let's real talk for a moment here. I mean, you know, it's funny to me that, you know, America has this Gordian knot right where we have a housing crisis of affordability, but we also given that we have, I forget exactly where current American home ownership rates are. I think it's still in the sixties. But given that our our fortunes are tied up in our homes, we also need the value of homes to go up forever. Right. That's a pretty irreconcilable pair of trends, and it's interesting to be what that produces. It produces things like the you know, the boom, and single family rentals like and build to rent. I think build to rent is fascinating every level here, the idea of the single family home and entire you know, subdivisions, neighborhoods, horizontal multi family effectively being built end mass by you know, the institutional owners. And you know what started is that you know, post financial crisis oper opportunistic buying to create invitation homes in American home for rent. Now it's you know, entire prefout of the neighborhoods in Metro Phoenix that we can't hook up to the grid by the way, because we have to data centers first. That's a whole other conversation. Well, it is funny though, because we've written things on this and talked about this. Is it's like, you know, you people need home braces to continue to go up, but but not even people. The banks need home prices to go up because they have these loans, you know, the the the people need it for retirement everything else. And but yet we have an affordable housing issue. So like we really want cheap homes, but like you can't have that. Those two things don't live in the same universe, so like you can't have both, right and and to Ken's point, people don't want building like they don't want building. You know, We've even talked to friends that are you know, super progressive and want to help all, you know, everybody get an affordable home. But then at the other end tell me, well, they're building this, you know, affordable homes in my neighborhood and we're petitioning against that because we don't want that in our neighborhood. So so it's it's it's so fascinating to me because people it's almost like, if you already have a house, you really don't want affordable housing. If you don't yet have a house, you want affordable housing, And that's really the. Divide absolutely, And so yeah, number one, the most progressive people are the nimbius buy and large, which I think is endlessly black. Pilling to me. And number two, you're right, and you know, not to get too deep into. Politics here, but that's exactly what we saw with the big shift towards President Trump, with young people who did not watch things get more affordable during the by years. And again here in Canada we're about to see an epic election where Justin Trudeau and the Liberals are about to be thrown out of power because the Conservatives and pure pall of aar have promised housing after Justine said nothing after nine years. I think this is a big threat here that young people realize like the establishment has not done anything to address housing affordability, so they're ready for change in that regard whatever that change may be, so it leads to interesting implications, to say the least. Well, you bring up a really good point. So one of the things that we studied was immigration. And there's a hot potato here, it's a hot potato there. And you know, your average price of a home in Canada is in the mid sevens now where you are, it's over a million. In Vancouver it's over a million. Toronto is over a million. That's the average, by the way, guys, and we're we're at four oh seven right now. And you know, people don't realize where it could go. And if you really look at the drivers, immigration was part of it. Now now I'm talking about legal immigration, not illegal immigration. But you know, now with with this deportation and the other thing that I also read on that topic is that we could lose one and a half million construction jobs, so you have that as well, so not just the actual physical people, but you could have that. So it could be a double hit potentially. So when you are looking at immigration and you're looking at burst minus das plus immigration and housing and all that stuff and company or country growth, what are you actually looking at Because we could very easily be where Canada is now, you. Know, absolutely, I mean, and for listeners of the Canadian situation, you know here we add you know, big surge and legal migration, which I'm one of them. I just got my permanent residency, so I was part of that whole boost. But yeah, Canada is a army is not grown our you know, GP per capitals fall and so like the political backlash is severe in that front as well. So you know, it's important to have a growing economy and growing opportunity for people or they will turn against the program, even the nice Canadians. But yeah, longer term. I mean yeah, I mean, I mean from a global perspective studying this, like immigration is a net good if you can absorb into society. You know, we're all getting older. But I think I mentioned this in my talk. You want a one sentence description of the future old people in cities, frightened of the sky, like people who are urbanizing. People are getting older. And then there's the climate issues as well, and you know, I think big picture, it's one of those things where you know, anybody who can figure out and by anybody, I mean you know federal level can figure out a messaging and can figure out the growth and build the housing and create the jobs to absorb those people will be big winners in the long run. It's it was only a handful of nations, even India, I believe it's starting to age now, so you know, those centers of future growth were going to be a lot of old people relying on few and figure young people to fund our retirements kind of thing. So yeah, so that yeah, oh, I was gonna say, Japan is a great example of that. Well, this is also I bring up robotics in this in Ai, So this is why we're going towards and this is you know, a future that I pay attention to is you know, you know, again increase automation and construction we're talking about as particularly if we lose a million and a half construction workers, rise in autonomous vehicles. I've paid attention a lot to tele operations. So you know, listeners who watched the latest Tesla launch where they had the various optimist robots pouring drinks and things. Those were all operated by humans over high speed internet. So we could see a lot more work like that, for example, to deal with this worker shortages, aging populations and so forth. And Japan really pioneered it. I mean interesting point there. Japan first got really big into robotics in a big way because of that, and the second, more recently, they realized they should actually loosen up immigration and so they've got a lot more Ford workers the first time. Yeah, he is a good point. Yeah, And I want to talk about what people want right because what people want or at least can afford, is very different than it has been previous. So you know, when we're looking through your power point, you know, people want walkability, as you were saying, they want to be able to walk everywhere. They don't really care how big their space is, like that kind of you know, I want this large house on this big piece of land like that seems to have tapered off on just being able to get places without a car and live in a community and be able to walk to different things. So what are you And that makes sense too with the older population as well, because you know, while they might not want to walk, they do want that community around them and they're not necessarily going to be able to drive to things either. So what are you kind of saying with that? And what can our investors that are listening take from it? When looking at new homes or designing new buildings. Yeah, a couple of these are so your point there. I totally agree with you about the larger homes, and you're alluding to I mean the I quote studies from the National Association or Realtors showing that their surveys show at least a stated preference for more walkability and closer to amenity. So you know, obviously people make choices under constraints, and affordability is a much bigger one than any desire for being able to walk to the to the corner store. So that happens a lot. And I definitely side with people like Chris Leinberg and others that a lot of the kind of mixed use housing in communities people would like to live in is illegal in various places because the zoning other things we've talked about. So a lot of that is pent up demand that doesn't have any place to go except higher prices. But with the future that I mean. I spent a good chunk. Of time in twenty twenty running a report called the Millennial Dilemma, looking at where millennial families would choose to go. Here, you are prime of. Your life raising young families would you choose to be like your boomer parents and end up at a cultus back which they don't, by the way, because we're seeing as boomers die in their homes that their children are not rushing to live in excerbs. You know, they're selling these places off 're in the wrong locations. Or would they try to like maintain their herbish lifestyles as best they can. And that's why I've been interested in the rise of these interesting mixed use districts that have averge legacy, you know, Legacy Town Center in Plano, Texas, Avalon and Alpharetta, Georgio, which I mentioned. I'm less familiar with some of the ones in Phoenix beyond a cul de Sac, but like Harman, obviously Scottsdale's got a bunch of them as well. But yeah, this idea of creating walkable pockets where you know, you might own a car, of course because of your commute and being able to access the larger metro, but people are trying to live in these kinds of enclaves that have these amenities there and of course where they feel safe with their children. I think it's really interesting. It's an echo of like Woodpictar grew and try to do with the mall in the nineteen fifties by enclosing it. Now we're trying to basically build these mixed use, wagable environments, but at larger, almost town scale, and it goes back to like the town center, or sorry, the lifestyle centers of the of the early aughts like two and five, twosand and six, or studying like Easton Town Center in Columbus, Ohio, which was built by a developer who was born in Istanbuls. You're seeing these ideas carried through. I do think it'll be interesting to see if America does follow the route of a nation like Italy or elsewhere where you see more multigenerational families, you see institutionalization of children living at home. I believe you know Italy, we have the classic show of like the forty year old man whose mother still makes lunch for at him every day he lives at home. I mean, not the future and I would want, but the Italians seem okay with it. So perhaps that's America's future. But do you think it's so bad to have multi generational families living together? I don't. I mean I personally don't want it. I mean, I don't think it should be mandatory. I think people should have opportunity. In the United States though, I mean, one of my favorite stats, eighty percent of Americans live within eighteen miles of their mothers. Like, Americans are actually not really mobile, and in fact, before the pandemic had declining mobility, they were less likely to move. So I think we will see a lot of more intergenerational homes. I think the boomers are more likely. Perhaps I see the boomers will keep their homes, their children will move in with them. We've seen in California and elsewhere the rise of the accessory dwelling unit, the idea of building a very small home in the backyard. Perhaps that's where the elderly parents move to be on ground level and their children take over the upstairs bedrooms in the main house. I think it will be good. And we saw you America's senior care and Canada's senior care is even worse. You know, during the pandemics some of the highest fatality rates, particularly early on. We're in the scent, So yeah, I think Americans are definitely rethinking the idea that we can just you know, put our boomer parents out to pasture, you know, for a couple of decades. Perhaps we'll have to take on that burden there. Yeah, I know, it's interesting because I flew to Hawaii to try to figure out, you know, potentially how to do deals there. What I learned is most of many many, many many areas or second third generations in one home, you know, because I'm not sure if it's because of the borders or I say borders, but what I mean is bordered by water. You know, it is obviously US state, but but it also has restrictions. And you're also seeing that in Manhattan, which is also an island, and you know, you're starting to see affordability. You know, that's why I reck control and all the things you're starting to see. And I'm wondering if you know where we're heading with inflation and and the restriction of supply. Even though temporarily maybe maybe two years, you're going to start to see some relieve, but then again, you know, we could be going into a really hard time of unaffordable rank you know, four or four rower rank caps and all those kinds of things. Yeah, and Morgan rates as well. I mean, obviously you know, we'll we'll see again how President Trump chooses to implement the tariffs, so that it's to promise. But you know, I mean, I just saw Darryl Fairweather or Redfinn quoted in Bloomberg saying that the reason mortgage rates went back up is because of Trump and the anticipated effects of the tariffs. So it'll be very interesting to see the permutations of economic policy there under Secretary Best Center, whoever gets whoever who probably will get confirmed, but once the once the Trump administration is back in place, and how they choose to implement policy there. But yeah, no, it's it's just gonna be one of those things where you know, we're going to have to figure out we're we're going to conform to the conditions that exist, and yeah, that could lead to cultural and social changes rather than changes in the built environment. It just all remains to be seen. Whish ones are stronger. Yeah, one more last comment before we wrap up, And I was gonna say it sure looks to me and I'm already experienced it personally into my company where we're getting clobber with insurance. Looks like they're coming after us for property taxes. I'm not sure about utilities or energy, but we're so the costs, I should say, to operate have never been more difficult. You know, before everyone's kind of focused on the top line, you know, how much is it going to cost to buy and how much is it going to cost to red? But now the underpinning kind of operational costs are starting to rise up as more problematic. In fact, you know, we're seeing the lenders and investors steer away from Florida, steer away from the golferry in Texas, and you know, they're starting to be smarter. I talked to one guy said, I'm not going anywhere on the coasts. I'm talking about big money. I'm talking about San Francisco and New York money, saying, you know, we're not We don't really want to focus on the coasts because of the politics and the regulations and all those kinds of things. So, you know, as that money makes its way around, do you have any crystal ball around that? Absolutely? And your point there. You know, I spoke recently with a Canadian investor that has divested all their multi family in Florida. They have decided to get out. They're done for these various reasons, climate insurance and the other variables that go through. So yeah, I mean crystal ball. You know, we're going to see mounting climate disasters. The number of billion dollar disasters continues to go up because of all the development we've done in these places over the last few decades, the so called expanding bulls eye effect insurance, they you know, in a in a free marketplace, they're going to continue to raise rents and drop coverage as much as they possibly can rather than throw good money after. Bad at this and that will lead again to interesting. By interesting, I mean potentially tragic effects where you know, you'll see or already starting to see. In some Florida coastal communities for example. You know, well only wealthy homeowners who can afford to buying cash and rebuild after any disaster are living there. Everyone else has been pushed inland, and you know, and then yeah, we might start to see you know effective you know, no no build zones from going from there. And that's just from a market perspective. Then there's questions about policy. So this is why I like long term and this is the work we do at Alpha Geo here is you know, trying to combine both the climate models with also you know, the social variables, who's got the political will, and who's got the tax base, and who's investing in adaptation, who's gonna build sea walls and these kinds of things, and who's going to move elsewhere. You know, we're trying to work. We're basically offering that as a service to potential investors to figure out, like what are the economic opportunities when it comes to geography tomorrow. So this is why, you know, for example, I mean, you know, we'll see. I'm one of those people who thinks of the Great Lakes, make the Great Lakes great again. As one of my favorite sayings someone from Illinois, like, now we got all the water people here. As a really lived in Montreal right here in Salt Laurans, the entire Great Lakes rushes past my house. But you know, it's still cold, and the economic geography is still tough, and are we curious to see if that turns around. But I can say with some assurance that I've read in various internal memorandums skump works projects by some of the largest developers and homebuilders, and they ask themselves what happens if that population flow from the north to the south. Ever, reverses someday for whatever reason, why do we do that? And so they're working on prospective schemes for that for sure. Well, you've certainly doing some fantastic work, Greg, appreciate what you guys did for us. For everybody listening, what's the best way to reach you, because I know there's a lot of folks on here that would love your data, love to keep connected with you. Well, I'd love to hear from everyone. Easiest place I think for everyone these days is LinkedIn, So I'm on there. Just search for Greg Lindsay Futurist speaker. You'll find me there. I'm also on the web at at Greg Lindsay dot org, so you can check out my website. Shoot me an email and yea, I would love to connect. And that's l I n dsay. As for millennials of a certain age listening, I used to say Lindsay as in low. Hand, but I'm not sure people get that reference anymore. Well, Greg, you're a fountain of information. Thank you well, thank you for having me on. It's been a pleasure. Yeah, thank you. Greg. H.
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